This week’s main events are Nvidia’s GTC Berlin conference and earnings from Meta and Tesla. At the same time, Donald Trump’s decision to pause implementation of some new Russia sanctions pushed oil lower in early Asian trading on Monday, while Apple’s new foldable iPhone Duo saw some delivery dates slip into January after pre-orders opened.
By Chaoxiang Research
Nasdaq fell 4.48% for the week as chip stocks stayed under pressure
On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.09% to 7,659.44, the Nasdaq dropped 2.15% to 26,140.03, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.34% to 52,002.41. The VIX jumped 21.45% to 19.99. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.83% to 11,137.29, marking its eighth straight trading-day decline. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index slipped 1.30% to 5,695.66.
For the full week, the S&P 500 lost 1.95%, the Nasdaq fell 4.48%, and the Dow rose 0.67%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped about 11.4% over the week. Tech stocks saw a much steeper pullback than other sectors.
Among the 11 major sectors, energy, utilities, consumer staples, materials, financials and real estate advanced, while information technology, communication services, consumer discretionary, health care and industrials declined. Oil and gas names and defense stocks held up better than the broader market.
Among the Magnificent Seven, Apple was the only gainer, rising 0.43% to $343.46. Meta fell 3.72%, Alphabet Class A lost 2.47%, Tesla dropped 2.13%, Microsoft fell 1.93%, Amazon lost 1.87%, and Nvidia slipped 1.43%. Micron fell 5.63%, while CoreWeave dropped another roughly 12% and was down about 25% for the week.
According to data released by the U.S. Treasury, the 10-year Treasury yield was about 5.09% on Friday, while the 2-year yield was about 4.74%. WTI crude futures rose 3.51% to $101.41 a barrel, and Brent crude gained 3.72% to $109.86. COMEX October gold futures added 0.28% to $4,159.50 an ounce. At the time of editing this report this morning, Bitcoin was around $82,100 and Ether was around $2,407.
Trump pauses some Russia sanctions, oil retreats in Monday morning trade
Trump signed an executive order on Friday to pause implementation of some Russia sanctions and tariff measures that had previously been passed by Congress. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration would take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact.
The prospect of increased supply pulled oil prices off recent highs. At around 7:40 a.m. Beijing time on Monday, Brent crude was at $108.43 a barrel, down 1.30%, while WTI traded at $100.88, down 0.52%.
Still, Russian diesel trade remains politically contested in the United States. Bipartisan lawmakers in the House had previously introduced legislation calling for the cancellation of related sales and import licenses and limits on future waivers. It remains unclear whether the easing of sanctions will last.
Shipping risks in the Middle East have not gone away either. Data from Kpler showed that the seven-day average of crude shipments from the Persian Gulf fell to about 8.5 million barrels per day last week, down from more than 20 million barrels per day the week before. Expectations for higher Russian fuel exports are pulling one way, while shipping disruptions continue to weigh on Middle East supply. Those two forces are still competing in the oil market.
Apple foldable pre-orders push some deliveries into January
Apple opened pre-orders for the iPhone Duo on Friday, with deliveries originally scheduled to begin on Oct. 23. After pre-orders started, estimated shipping times on Apple websites in multiple countries moved back quickly, with some orders now delayed until late January next year.
Apple said demand for the new phone was "extraordinary." The company has not disclosed pre-order volumes or the size of its initial inventory, so it is not yet possible to separate how much of the delay reflects strong demand and how much may be tied to supply constraints.
The foldable device adds a new premium product line for Apple. Once the phone officially goes on sale on Oct. 23, early user feedback, delivery speed and follow-up sales will offer a clearer read on the product than pre-order momentum alone.
On Friday, Apple was the only stock in the Magnificent Seven to finish higher, while other large-cap tech names broadly declined. As earnings roll in this week, investors will be watching whether revenue growth is keeping pace with expanding spending.
Rate-hike expectations cool, but tech shares keep falling
Federal Reserve Chair Waller said in Bangkok on Friday that he would not prejudge the outcome of the next policy meeting. His remarks did not add to recent expectations for another rate increase, and the implied probability of a hike in October moved lower.
Even so, chip stocks kept falling, and CoreWeave was sold again after a sharp rebound on Thursday. Beyond interest rates, investors are also reassessing debt levels, financing arrangements and cash returns across AI companies.
That leaves more than revenue in focus for this week’s earnings. For companies buying large volumes of chips and expanding data centers, investors are also watching whether capital spending plans are changing and whether cash flow can cover that spending. If customers keep increasing investment, the order outlook for semiconductor and server supply chains may become clearer.
What to watch this week
- Tuesday, Oct. 20: The U.S. will release September housing starts and building permits at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time.
- Wednesday, Oct. 21: Jensen Huang will deliver the GTC Berlin keynote at 5:00 p.m. Beijing time. After the U.S. market closes that day, which is early Thursday in Beijing, Meta and Tesla will report earnings. Capital spending, cash flow and profit margins are the main items to watch.
- Friday, Oct. 23: Apple’s iPhone Duo officially goes on sale. The U.S. will also release preliminary October manufacturing and services PMI data at 9:45 p.m. Beijing time.
Chaoxiang Research @chaoxiangooo
