Bitcoin swung sharply on February 16 during Lunar New Year’s Eve trading, dropping from $70,100 to $67,274, a decline of more than 4%, before recovering to $68,945. Ether moved in the same direction. It fell from $2,022 to below $1,937, then bounced back to $2,033.
Bitfinex says macro conditions are turning more constructive
In its latest Alpha report, Bitfinex said the market has started to stabilize after Bitcoin touched a local low near $60,000 in early February. The report said rate markets have been repricing and now reflect expectations for three rate cuts in 2026, with the odds of an April cut increasing. For non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, lower expectations for real yields can ease part of the macro pressure.
Derivatives metrics move back toward normal levels
Bitfinex also pointed to changes in the derivatives market. Funding rates have returned to normal ranges, while implied volatility has narrowed to below 50. That combination suggests the earlier wave of market fear has faded. The report described this kind of reset as a pattern often seen after a market forms a local base.
Long-term holder supply rises again
On-chain data was another focus. According to Bitfinex Alpha, Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders has started rising again after several months of decline, reaching 14.3 million BTC. The shift indicates that part of the experienced holder base has resumed accumulation during periods of weaker prices. Bitfinex treated that move as an early bullish signal worth watching.
Seasonal trading narrative remains in focus
The source article also noted that Bitcoin had previously posted gains during the Lunar New Year period for ten straight years, with an average return of 12%, before that streak ended in the Year of the Snake. This time, the Year of the Horse opened with a sharp sell-off and rebound on New Year’s Eve, but prices still finished higher than the intraday low. The article also cited Polymarket data showing a 71% chance of Bitcoin returning to $85,000 in February and an 80% chance of revisiting $100,000 in 2026.