Bitcoin extended its weekend advance and briefly rose to $63,450, marking its highest level in nearly two weeks before the weekly close. Even so, the move stopped short of a clean breakout, and BTC/USD spent late Sunday consolidating around $62,700, a key technical area aligned with the 200-week simple moving average.
That level has become the main battleground for traders. The 200-week SMA is widely tracked as a long-term trend marker, and Bitcoin’s return to it has renewed debate over whether the market is building a more durable recovery or simply staging another relief rally inside a broader uncertain range.
Part of the latest upside came during a three-day US holiday weekend, when thinner exchange order books can amplify price swings. Market commentator Exitpump said stronger passive supply was visible overhead, suggesting sellers were still leaning on price despite the weekend push toward recent highs.
Short squeeze dynamics lifted BTC, but traders remain wary of Monday weakness
Trader Daan Crypto Trades said the move higher bore the hallmarks of a classic short squeeze. In his view, Bitcoin climbed into an area where many participants were positioned short, and the rally accelerated as those positions were forced to cover. CoinGlass data showed total crypto liquidations of $167 million over the previous 24 hours, underscoring the degree of leverage being cleared out during the move.
That said, not everyone is treating the weekend strength as a clear signal of continuation. Trader Killa cautioned that the last seven Mondays have all been “absolutely terrible” for Bitcoin price action. The warning has added a note of caution ahead of the new trading week, with some market participants bracing for renewed downside once full liquidity returns.
As a result, the weekly close near the 200-week moving average is being watched closely. If BTC can hold above the area, traders may start to view the move as a more meaningful technical shift. If it fails, the latest advance could be seen as another squeeze-driven pop that ran into resistance.
ETF inflows and softer US data add support to broader risk sentiment
Beyond technicals, macro conditions have turned somewhat more supportive. In a market note published Friday, QCP Capital said crypto and other risk assets were beginning to show “greener shoots.” One of the main reasons was renewed net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which the market often treats as a sign of steadier institutional demand.
Another supportive factor came from the latest US nonfarm payrolls report, which came in below expectations. That result helped soften market assumptions that the Federal Reserve would need to stay aggressively hawkish, giving risk assets some room to recover. QCP noted that one of the clearest dovish signals was a roughly 2% jump in gold, although it said the move likely reflected real-rate and safe-haven positioning more than outright optimism on growth.
According to the latest CME Group FedWatch Tool data, markets assign nearly an 80% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its July 29 meeting. QCP added that a broader front-end dovish repricing would still require more accommodating Consumer Price Index data. Until then, Bitcoin’s ability to defend the 200-week SMA may remain the clearest near-term signal for traders assessing whether weekend strength can carry into the new week.