Bitcoin on-chain metrics are again pointing to conditions often associated with a market bottom. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said the signal has been activated for the first time since the latest correction began, with a clear increase in UTXOs being spent at a loss. That shift suggests more positions are being closed underwater, a pattern that can appear during the early stage of broader capitulation.
Loss-spent UTXO ratio falls back to bear-market territory
Darkfost said the recent jump in UTXOs spent at a loss indicates Bitcoin may be moving into a bottoming phase. In past cycles, periods like this have coincided with notable entry points for long-term investors, though he also said the process may take time. The last comparable reading came during the sharp decline in the middle of the previous bear market, when Bitcoin fell to $26,000.
A UTXO, or unspent transaction output, is a basic way to track coin movement on the Bitcoin network. SOPR, short for Spent Output Profit Ratio, measures whether coins are being transferred at a profit or a loss at the time they are spent.
Long-term holders are showing deeper stress
In a separate note, Darkfost said long-term holders are now approaching a capitulation phase of their own. Their SOPR has moved deeper into negative territory, showing that losses are becoming more visible inside that cohort. Even so, the main force behind the current correction still appears to be short-term holders sending Bitcoin to exchanges at a rapid pace, which points to near-term participants as the primary source of recent selling pressure.
Other analysts also see a bottoming setup
Analyst DurdenBTC highlighted the same UTXO ratio and said a bottom signal has reappeared. He argued that this indicator has identified each cycle low since 2016, while warning that market discomfort could continue for several more weeks. Swissblock, the on-chain analytics firm, said Bitcoin may have already passed the first phase of the sharp drop, but the market is still working through a bottom formation.
Price remains unstable as geopolitical tension rises
On the price side, volatility has not eased. Global uncertainty rose over the weekend after renewed US military strikes targeted Iranian positions, adding pressure to risk-sensitive assets. Early Sunday, Bitcoin dropped to $59,800 before recovering part of the move and climbing back above $60,100. On-chain data is starting to flash a possible floor, but short-term turbulence is still in place.