Bitcoin climbed to its latest all-time high near $126,000 on October 6, 2025, then dropped to around $63,000 by early June 2026. That puts the asset roughly 50% below the peak. In the source material, this decline is framed as the contraction phase that followed the latest cycle top, with cycle analysis used as a way to judge the broader stage rather than call an exact bottom.
Halving-based cycle analysis points to a post-peak contraction
The article ties Bitcoin’s recurring market rhythm to the halving schedule. Each halving cuts the flow of newly issued BTC to miners, reducing fresh supply entering the market. Historically, that supply shock has been followed by a period of price expansion and then a deep correction.
According to the source, Bitcoin reached its 2025 cycle top about 530 days after the latest halving. Prior cycle bottoms, it says, formed at roughly 890 days after a halving. If that spacing holds again, the market has likely moved beyond the top and into the stretch that leads toward the next bottoming zone. The framework offers timing context, but not a precise turning day.
DCA is built for uncertainty rather than perfect entry timing
Dollar-cost averaging means buying a fixed amount of an asset on a fixed schedule no matter where the price stands. The source uses a simple example: buying $100 of Bitcoin every week or every month. When the market falls, that same amount buys more BTC. When the market rises, it buys less, producing a blended entry price over time.
That structure spreads entry risk across many dates instead of concentrating it in one purchase. In a volatile market like Bitcoin, where identifying the exact low remains difficult, the method is presented as a practical way to keep accumulating through a prolonged bottoming process.
Long-term holder data and sell-side pressure show weaker willingness to sell
The source says long-term holder supply has reached a fresh all-time high, with this group now holding more than 82% of circulating Bitcoin. These are addresses that have kept coins dormant for extended periods. In the article’s interpretation, they tend to add during downturns and reduce exposure only as price approaches prior highs.
It also points to Bitcoin’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which recently fell to its lowest level since 2023. That is used as a sign that holders are less eager to realize profits or cut losses, with fewer coins moving toward exchanges. In that setting, the amount of fresh demand needed to stabilize prices becomes smaller.
Momentum indicators hint at a turn, but not a confirmed bottom
On the technical side, the article highlights two patterns often watched near cycle lows: a bullish RSI divergence and a bullish MACD crossover. The first appears when price makes a lower low while RSI makes a higher low. The second suggests momentum may be shifting away from sellers before the price trend fully recovers.
As of early June 2026, RSI readings were near oversold territory on several timeframes. The source treats that as an early sign that selling force may be fading, not proof that the bottom is already in. That is why DCA is presented as a better fit for this phase: it avoids guessing the exact low and keeps exposure building on a fixed schedule.