Bitcoin ended June on a dismal note, sliding from a high of $67,203 on June 16 to a low of $58,188 on June 25, and is now consolidating in a narrow range between $58,905 and $60,545, failing to reclaim the $60,000 psychological level. As of 09:08 Beijing time on June 29, BTC was trading at $59,612 (down 0.66% in 24 hours), while ETH stood at $1,570.86, nearly flat. The two-week decline has left the technical picture without a clear reversal signal.
Longs Liquidated: $184M in 24-Hour Forced Liquidations
According to CoinGlass data, total liquidations across the crypto market in the past 24 hours reached $184.2 million. Focusing on the last 12 hours, liquidations totaled $142 million, with longs accounting for $123 million (86% of the total) and shorts just $19.2 million. The single largest liquidation was $2.77 million. Leveraged longs remain under pressure in this low-range volatile environment, while shorts are comparatively comfortable.
Three Headwinds Converge: ETF Outflows, Hawkish Fed, Tech Weakness
The two-week pullback is driven by three clear factors. First, spot Bitcoin ETFs are bleeding cash, recording net outflows for 13 consecutive days totaling $4.33 billion. The weekly outflow once reached $3.4 billion, the largest single-week outflow since ETFs launched in January 2024, signaling institutional position reduction.
Second, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. At the June 17 FOMC meeting chaired by new Chairman Kevin Warsh, the committee held the rate at 3.50-3.75% and raised the year-end median rate forecast to 3.8%. The CME FedWatch now shows the market has almost fully priced out any rate cut expectations for 2026, with a 95-98% chance of no change, removing the support from a dovish narrative.
Third, tech stock sentiment drags. On Friday's close, the Nasdaq was at ~25,298 (-0.24%, fifth straight decline), S&P 500 at ~7,354 (-0.05%), and the Dow at ~51,876 (-0.09%). The New York Times reported OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO due to poor post-IPO performance of SpaceX, dragging AI-related stocks and keeping risk appetite cautious. These three factors together suggest the current price action is not simply panic selling, but a combination of institutional profit-taking and hawkish monetary policy.
Altcoin Divergence: SOL Edges Up 1.6%, XRP Stagnant
Altcoins show mixed performance. SOL was at $71.59, up +1.60% in 24 hours, the best among major coins; it has bounced from a low of $64.90 on June 25 but remains about 5.6% below its June 16 high of $75.60. XRP was at $1.05, nearly flat (+0.01%), recovering modestly from a low of $1.01 on June 26 but still about 22.9% below its June 16 high of $1.29. The overall market lacks cohesive rebound momentum, and altcoins' localized gains have not formed a trend.
Fear Index at 12 (Extreme Fear): Reversal Needs Catalyst
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 12 (extreme fear), down from 18 yesterday and 20 last week, staying deep in the extreme fear zone for several weeks. Historically, extreme fear often characterizes the bottom-building phase, but a reversal still requires a catalyst. With three headwinds—ongoing ETF outflows, Fed inaction, and weak U.S. stocks—remaining unresolved, near-term attention is on: whether spot ETF net outflows can stem and reverse, whether BTC can hold the $58,000-$59,000 support zone, and whether equities can stabilize from their losing streak. Technical pressure remains high at month-end; short-term longs should be cautious.