Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $77,733 as of midday Hong Kong time, according to CoinDesk, showing little change over the past 24 hours after dipping to $76,685 and failing to hold above $78,000 during U.S. trading hours.
Liquidation Data Points to Leverage Flush, Not Trend Reversal
CoinGlass data showed about $200 million in crypto liquidations over the last 24 hours, nearly evenly split between longs and shorts. This suggests the move was not a one-sided capitulation but a volatile market swinging sharply in both directions. Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, told CoinDesk: "There was no massive accumulation of leveraged longs before this, meaning most of the liquidated were leveraged funds trying to short-term bottom-fish. This signals we are not in the middle of a structural trend reversal. A temporary bottom in the $75,000–$77,000 range remains well-defined."
U.S. 30-Year Yield Breaks 5%, Adding Macro Pressure
Sun pointed to the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield recently exceeding 5% as a more significant pressure point. Rising long-term yields tend to weigh on speculative assets by raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin while tightening overall financial conditions. "There is no compelling reason for new capital to flow into the market right now," he said, adding that oil and inflation risks remain in focus.
Geopolitics as the Next Catalyst
A meaningful de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions could cool oil prices and inflation expectations, reducing yield pressure and giving Bitcoin room to recover, according to Sun. However, if yields stay elevated and geopolitical risks persist, Bitcoin may remain in a defensive, range-bound market with the $75,000–$77,000 area acting as key near-term support.