According to BlockBeats on July 27, a Bitunix analyst said this week will bring rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, while U.S. second-quarter GDP, core PCE and earnings from several technology heavyweights are also due. That puts monetary policy, economic growth and corporate profitability under market scrutiny at the same time.
The analyst said investors are reassessing the future global cost of capital under the combined effect of three forces: energy prices, tariff policy and AI capital expenditure. In that reading, the market is not simply betting on rate cuts or rate hikes.
Energy and shipping risks remain in focus
The note said the Middle East situation has shown brief signs of cooling. The U.S. and Iran have continued talks through Oman on issues related to the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has also said it is willing to maintain a ceasefire and negotiations. Even so, risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have not been fully removed, and continued threats to energy transport by the Houthis mean uncertainty around oil supply remains in place.
The Bitunix analyst also pointed to the U.S. Department of Energy issuing a grid emergency covering 17 states because of high temperatures, saying this again shows energy demand is still elevated. Energy prices, in that view, may remain an important driver of inflation later on.
Tariffs and AI spending add to cost pressure
On trade, the analyst said Donald Trump has again widened tariff pressure, issuing a Section 301 investigation threat against the European Union while continuing to face legal challenges. That, the note said, shows uncertainty in global supply-chain costs is still building.
The technology sector presents another form of inflation pressure. Qualcomm has raised chip prices, competition among AI models continues to intensify, and Samsung, SK Hynix and Nvidia are expanding investment, a sign that the global race to build AI infrastructure has not cooled. But the market’s focus has started to move away from how much is being spent and toward when those investments can generate sufficient returns.
This week’s earnings may test the AI capex case
The analyst said earnings this week from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon and Qualcomm will directly determine whether AI capital spending is still enough to support currently elevated tech stock valuations.
For that reason, the market is not only looking for whether the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged. It is also watching whether Waller will place more emphasis on inflation risk and whether corporate earnings can show that AI investment is being converted into profitability.
GDP and core PCE could shape pricing for the second half
According to the Bitunix analyst, if core PCE and GDP continue to show resilience, the room for the Fed to keep rates high for longer, and even reopen discussion of rate hikes, would increase. If economic data begin to soften while companies continue to expand capital spending, market attention may swing back to corporate cash flow and valuation correction pressure.
The analyst said this week could become an important dividing line for global asset pricing in the second half of the year, determining whether capital continues to chase high-growth narratives or returns to valuing cash flow and fundamentals.