Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, believes the current geopolitical chaos could force bitcoin to evolve beyond its "digital gold" narrative and into a functional currency, pushing its price past $1 million over the next decade. He characterizes this scenario as an "out-of-the-money call option" — low probability but massive upside if triggered.
Iran's Bitcoin Toll Proposal Ignites the Thesis
The catalyst is Iran's reported plan to charge $1 in bitcoin per barrel for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. At an estimated 20 million barrels of daily transit, that would generate $20 million daily in BTC fees. Hougan argues this demonstrates a "reality that transcends the current conflict: In a world where countries have weaponized their financial rails, bitcoin is emerging as an apolitical alternative."
Hougan had previously projected bitcoin could reach $1 million by capturing 17% of the $38 trillion store-of-value market. But he now suggests that if bitcoin begins to assume a dual role — both as a store of value (like gold) and a transaction currency (like the dollar) — those targets may need to be revised upward.
Dual Role Expands Market Potential
On social media, Hougan noted that while the probability of bitcoin becoming a "traditional currency" remains low, it is no longer as far-fetched as it seemed just a few years ago. The Iran conflict has created two conditions: an increased chance of bitcoin being used as actual money, and a rise in global monetary system volatility. These forces together dramatically expand bitcoin's addressable market.
Chainalysis earlier called Iran's crypto toll plan a "significant milestone" for state-level digital asset adoption. Hougan's analysis extends that logic: if bitcoin captures both store-of-value and medium-of-exchange functions, its potential market cap far exceeds single-role assumptions.
Hougan stressed this remains a speculative thesis — akin to an out-of-the-money call option. Bitcoin currently trades near $60,000, meaning the $1 million target implies more than a 15x gain, with the trigger depending on whether geopolitical tensions spread and whether other nations follow Iran's lead in building crypto payment corridors.