Matt Hogan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, has outlined a scenario where escalating geopolitical tensions could drive Bitcoin to surpass $1 million within the next decade. However, he characterizes the bet as an “out-of-the-money call option”—low probability but high reward.
The Catalyst: Iran’s Bitcoin Toll in the Strait of Hormuz
Hogan points to a recent proposal by Iran to charge 1 BTC per barrel of oil (or roughly $1 per barrel equivalent) as a transit fee for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This toll could generate $20 million daily in Bitcoin revenue. According to Hogan, this event demonstrates that Bitcoin is evolving beyond its “digital gold” narrative into a non-political medium of exchange used for real-world payments between nations.
“In a world where countries have weaponized their financial rails, Bitcoin is emerging as an apolitical alternative,” Hogan wrote on social media. He argues that the Iranian move marks a shift from Bitcoin being purely a store of value to also functioning as a traditional currency for settling cross-border obligations.
Revising the $1M Target Upward
Previously, Hogan had projected that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by capturing just 17% of the $38 trillion store-of-value market (including gold, government bonds, etc.) over the next ten years. But he now suggests that the new dual-role functionality could justify an even higher price target.
“If Bitcoin begins to serve both as a store of value (like gold) and as a real currency (like the dollar), we may need to revise our targets upward to bigger numbers,” Hogan stated. He draws an analogy to an out-of-the-money call option: two conditions—increased probability of Bitcoin being used as currency and heightened volatility in the global monetary order—have been met simultaneously due to the Iranian conflict and ongoing geopolitical instability.
Industry Reaction: A Watershed Moment for Government Adoption
Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis also weighed in, describing Iran’s cryptocurrency toll as a “significant milestone for government adoption” of digital assets. The firm noted that the event highlights how cryptocurrencies can be leveraged by states to bypass sanctions and traditional financial controls.
Despite the bullish outlook, Hogan cautioned that the path to $1 million+ is not guaranteed. “This is not a prediction—it’s an option that requires specific conditions to pay off. Investors should assess their own risk tolerance,” he said.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading around $128,000, up 2.3% in the last 24 hours, with markets sensitive to further geopolitical developments.