Polymarket has opened talks with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission over lifting the 2022 settlement restrictions that cut American users off from its main exchange. Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter on April 28, said the discussions have taken place over recent weeks, though no approval timeline or detailed terms have been disclosed.
The stakes are high. Polymarket’s main platform recorded more than $10 billion in trading volume in March, according to the report, yet that activity has largely taken place outside US jurisdiction. A return to the domestic market would give the prediction market operator a path back to the country it exited under regulatory pressure.
The 2022 settlement that pushed Polymarket offshore
The dispute goes back to 2022, when the CFTC said Polymarket was operating as an unregistered binary options venue. The company settled with the regulator for $1.4 million and agreed to block US users, while its onchain exchange operations moved offshore.
That did not stop its growth. Bloomberg’s report notes that Polymarket gained broad attention during the 2024 US presidential election and expanded into the leading name in crypto-based prediction markets. Still, its largest business line has remained out of reach for US traders, leaving a major gap in its market structure.
QCX acquisition sits at the center of the US strategy
Polymarket has already built part of the legal infrastructure it may need. In July 2025, the company acquired QCX LLC for about $112 million and renamed it Polymarket US, giving it access to a CFTC-registered derivatives exchange license.
That US arm is still limited in scope. It currently focuses on sports markets and does not carry the broader political and economic contracts that drive activity on the main platform. According to Bloomberg’s sources, the current talks are focused on bringing the offshore main exchange and the QCX license under a single regulatory framework so US customers could legally access a fuller set of products.
Selig’s position could decide the outcome
The structure of the CFTC has added unusual weight to the role of Chairman Michael Selig. Bloomberg said four of the agency’s five commissioner seats are vacant, leaving Selig as the only sitting commissioner. Under the rules cited in the report, one vote is enough for approval, making his position central to any effort by Polymarket to return.
Selig has previously spoken in favor of prediction markets and argued that states do not have authority over them, describing the area as part of the CFTC’s exclusive federal remit. The report also points to legal action by the Trump administration, where the Justice Department and the CFTC sued three states including Arizona over control of prediction market regulation.
Regulatory and legal pressure has not gone away
Even as talks move ahead, Polymarket is dealing with other scrutiny. One case involving a US servicemember alleged that the individual used a VPN to bypass geographic restrictions and trade on the offshore platform using classified information, generating more than $400,000 in profit. The case highlighted a core regulatory issue: Americans may still be accessing the offshore site despite the ban.
At the state level, Wisconsin sued Polymarket, Kalshi, and Coinbase in April, arguing that their activity amounted to illegal sports betting. That case has become part of a larger fight over whether prediction markets fall under state gambling laws or federal derivatives oversight.
If Polymarket does get back into the US, the competitive balance in the sector could shift fast. Bloomberg said rival Kalshi has reached a $22 billion valuation, while Polymarket recently completed two fundraising rounds in one month at a $15 billion valuation, with total funding nearing $400 million. Legal access to the US market would put Polymarket’s liquidity and trading volume in direct competition with Kalshi on its home turf.