Bank of America Global Research said in its "Global Memory Tech" report that channel checks point to stronger-than-expected DRAM contract pricing for the third quarter. The report said newly negotiated prices are coming in above prior market expectations, with server DRAM prices rising 20% to 30% quarter over quarter, driven mainly by high-speed LPDDR5. That compares with earlier expectations for gains of no more than 20%.
BofA also said spot demand has remained firm, with commodity DDR5 and legacy DDR4 prices continuing to rise month over month in July. Near-term orders for higher-priced HBM4 have increased, while the share of lower-priced HBM3E orders has declined. According to the report, DRAM sales covered by long-term supply agreements account for well below 50% of total sales, while non-LTA sales make up about 60% to 70%. Even under long-term agreements, some orders have already been set at 5% to 10% quarter-over-quarter increases.
The report added that some OEMs are speeding up orders, suggesting both DRAM and NAND prices could post quarter-over-quarter gains of more than 20%. Based on that view, BofA expects global DRAM average selling prices to rise 21% in the third quarter, above TrendForce estimates of 13% to 18% for conventional DRAM and 8% to 13% when HBM is included.
BlockBeats reported on July 19 that Bank of America Global Research, in its "Global Memory Tech" report, said channel checks show newly negotiated DRAM contract prices for the third quarter are rising more than the market had expected.
The report said server DRAM prices are up 20% to 30% quarter over quarter, led mainly by high-speed LPDDR5. That is above the market's earlier expectation of gains capped at 20%. Spot demand has also stayed firm, and prices for commodity DDR5 and legacy DDR4 continued to rise month over month in July.
BofA added that near-term orders for higher-priced HBM4 are increasing, while the share of orders for lower-priced HBM3E has declined. The report said DRAM sales covered by long-term supply agreements account for well below 50% of total sales, while sales outside long-term agreements make up about 60% to 70%. Even within long-term agreements, some orders have already been set with quarter-over-quarter price increases of 5% to 10%.
Some OEMs are also accelerating orders, according to the report, a sign that both DRAM and NAND prices may rise by more than 20% quarter over quarter. BofA expects global DRAM average selling prices to increase 21% in the third quarter, above TrendForce projections of 13% to 18% for conventional DRAM and 8% to 13% when HBM is included.
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