Brazil’s main stock exchange, B3, will start offering six new event contracts on April 27, giving investors a regulated way to trade on the probability of future outcomes tied to bitcoin, the U.S. dollar, and the Ibovespa index. The structure resembles prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, where pricing reflects the market’s view of how likely a given outcome is.
B3 said each contract can be priced at up to 100 reals (about $19). The products cover both spot prices and mini futures linked to the three reference assets. They are set up with fixed payouts and predefined risk, and traders will not receive the underlying asset at settlement. Instead, all contracts will be cash settled.
Access limited to investors with large asset bases or certification
The exchange said the new contracts fall under the supervision of Brazil’s securities regulator, the CVM, and will be available only to professional investors. At launch, that means participants must either hold more than 10 million reals in assets, roughly $1.9 million, or have CVM certification.
Luiz Masagão, B3’s vice president of Products and Clients, said the rollout fits into a broader effort to modernize derivatives trading in Brazil. B3 already lists contracts tied to central bank decisions in several countries, and Masagão said the exchange has been closely watching the expansion of predictive trading platforms abroad.
First federally regulated prediction-market style product in Brazil
The launch gives Brazil its first prediction-market style offering operating inside a federal regulatory structure. Competition is already building. Domestic platforms including Prévias and Palpitada have been active in Brazil under uncertain regulatory conditions, while U.S.-based Kalshi recently partnered with XP International, the country’s largest brokerage, to offer event contracts linked to Brazilian economic outcomes.
The backdrop is a broader global surge in prediction markets. A Dune dashboard shows notional volume across the sector approaching $160 billion, with more than 3 million unique users. Polymarket and Kalshi account for most of that volume. Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, recently increased its backing of Polymarket, taking its total commitment to nearly $2 billion.
Regulatory questions remain open
Even with B3’s products under CVM oversight, the longer-term regulatory division for prediction markets in Brazil is still unsettled. Legal specialists cited in the report said it remains unclear whether oversight should ultimately rest with the CVM, the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance.
B3 has also been building out other digital-asset related projects. Late last year, the exchange said it was working on its own tokenization platform and a stablecoin, both expected to launch this year.