BTC dropped sharply during Monday's Asian session, falling from $67,000 to $64,000 before finding temporary support near $65,000 later in the day. The source linked the move to weaker U.S. stock index futures, a sign that pressure across risk assets was spilling into crypto. The selloff was fast. The rebound was limited.
On the daily chart, the article said BTC has been forming a basing structure through February while hovering around its short-term trend. It also pointed to signs of institutional buying in the $65,000 to $67,000 range, which has helped create near-term support. That support has not been enough to change the tone, though, because retail participation remains weak and bearish pressure in the futures market is still heavy.
Retail demand stays muted without a fresh narrative
The source argued that many retail traders are staying on the sidelines because the prevailing view is that the market is already in a bear phase. At the same time, there is no strong narrative to pull new money back in. Support may be visible on the chart, but buying interest has not expanded with it, leaving BTC vulnerable each time the range is tested.
Three risk events are in focus this week
The article highlighted three possible "grey rhino" events that could trigger another round of downside volatility. First is rising tension between the United States and Iran. Talks are still ongoing, but market participants are watching U.S. military deployments in the Middle East and leaning toward risk-off positioning.
Second, on-chain investigator ZachXBT said he plans to release details on the 26th about insider trading at a "very profitable company." If the firm has major influence in crypto, the disclosure could put direct pressure on prices. Third, WLFI, which the source described as being connected to Trump, has been hit by a series of issues: several founders' accounts were hacked, USD1 depegged, and Eric Trump deleted a post on X. The cause and market effect remain unclear.
Market seen staying range-bound
Based on the source's view, the market is now closer to the opening stage of a bear cycle, making a strong rebound unlikely. With macro conditions also slowing, crypto is expected to remain choppy in the near term. If any of these risk events intensify, BTC could face another leg lower.