Cboe Global Markets announced Tuesday that its new platform Cboe Predicts has gone live with its first prediction market contracts — binary options tied to the Mini S&P 500 Index (XSP). The contracts allow traders to bet yes or no on the index's closing level and are sized at one-tenth of a standard S&P 500 contract.
Tickers XSPBW and XSPBX Debut on Interactive Brokers
The products trade under XSPBW and XSPBX and are initially available via Interactive Brokers. Cboe said Charles Schwab plans to offer access within the coming months. JJ Kinahan, head of retail expansion and alternative investment products at Cboe, said: “Cboe’s S&P 500 options suite has long provided traders with flexibility to define their outcomes through traditional options strategies. With Cboe Predicts, we are expanding that choice by offering simple ‘yes-or-no’ payout event contracts, supported by dedicated educational resources designed to help customers participate more confidently and responsibly.”
Structured as Security Options Within Existing Framework
Cboe stressed that the contracts are structured as security options and fall under the same regulatory framework as U.S. listed options — a deliberate distinction from unregulated event contracts offered by platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. The move comes amid ongoing jurisdictional clashes between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and several state authorities over event-based derivatives.
Race Heats Up: Wall Street, Crypto Platforms, and Even Meta
Over the past year, Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, and Coinbase have all rolled out prediction market or binary option products. Polymarket and Kalshi remain the dominant independent operators. Cboe’s entry signals that traditional exchanges see a growing appetite for event-driven contracts.
Separately, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has directed employees to build a standalone prediction market app called Arena, according to a New York Times report citing two employees familiar with the plan. Arena will initially use a points-based system rather than real-money wagering, with potential monetary betting later. Meta reportedly plans to keep the app separate from Facebook and Instagram but could use its existing platforms to drive users. As of March, Meta reported 3.56 billion daily active users across its family of apps.
Cboe’s bet is not just on the product — it is on moving prediction markets from the fringe into mainstream derivatives, banking on regulatory clarity and exchange stamp of approval.