The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission had quietly approved at least three insider-trading investigations tied to trading on Polymarket, according to records obtained by WIRED through the Freedom of Information Act. The cases involve contracts linked to a Biden pardon, an Iran war scenario, and a Google-related event contract.
One probe, approved by CFTC Chair Michael Selig in May, concerns a Biden pardon market where a trader had previously made more than $300,000. That same month, the agency also approved an investigation into an Iran war contract after a group of suspicious accounts was reported to have earned $2.4 million with an approximately 98% win rate. In July, the CFTC launched another probe into a Google-related Polymarket market, focusing on whether anyone traded using nonpublic information tied to Google’s 2025 search rankings.
The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York is also conducting a parallel investigation. Polymarket said it would refer relevant matters to law enforcement and cooperate with the inquiry. The developments show U.S. regulators stepping up scrutiny of insider trading and market manipulation as prediction markets expand quickly.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission had quietly approved at least three insider-trading investigations tied to trades on Polymarket, involving contracts linked to a Biden pardon, an Iran war scenario and Google-related events, according to BlockBeats.
Three probes were approved
The investigation records were obtained by WIRED through the Freedom of Information Act. Among them, CFTC Chair Michael Selig approved a probe in May into a Biden pardon-related contract after a trader had made more than $300,000 in that market.
In the same month, the CFTC also approved an investigation into an Iran war contract. Before that, a group of suspicious accounts had been reported to earn $2.4 million with an approximately 98% win rate.
In July, the CFTC moved on to a Google-related Polymarket contract. The focus was on possible trading based on nonpublic information related to Google’s 2025 search rankings.
Southern District of New York is running a parallel case
The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York is also conducting a parallel investigation. It remains unclear whether the accounts in these cases are connected to individuals involved in earlier probes.
Polymarket said the company would refer relevant matters to law enforcement and cooperate with the investigation.
Regulatory scrutiny is tightening
As prediction markets expand rapidly, U.S. regulators are clearly increasing scrutiny of insider trading and market manipulation.
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