Senator Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) drew a hard line at a Washington event: the CLARITY Act must clear Congress by the end of May or US crypto market-structure legislation is effectively dead for this cycle. “I think we’re going to get it done by the end of May,” he said, but warned that missing the window would make digital asset legislation “likely impossible” to advance for the foreseeable future as the midterm calendar takes over.
Five hurdles crammed into three weeks
The ultimatum comes as the Senate Banking Committee has not held a single formal vote on the package, even though the House passed its version 294–134 in July 2025 and the Senate Agriculture Committee cleared its own text back in January. According to Disruption Banking and Galaxy Research, the bill must run a five-step gauntlet in weeks: a Banking Committee markup, a 60-vote Senate floor passage, reconciliation with the Agriculture version, reconciliation with the House bill, and President Trump’s signature. Congress is scheduled to leave for Memorial Day recess on May 21, leaving roughly three working weeks in May.
Bank pushback and stablecoin yield fight
Moreno dismissed opposition as “fake noise.” At the DC Blockchain Summit he argued that banks “also need to innovate” instead of trying to kill yield-bearing stablecoin products. Reports emerged that the North Carolina Bankers Association was urging member banks to call Senator Thom Tillis to oppose a hard-won stablecoin yield compromise. Industry lobby group the Digital Chamber sent a formal letter to Senate leadership pressing for an immediate markup, warning further delay would turn the CLARITY Act into “another lost opportunity.” Senator Cynthia Lummis called this “our last chance.” Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad projected an April markup and a May floor vote if leadership moves.
“The US Senate Banking Committee is unlikely to consider the CLARITY Act in April. Discussion may be postponed until May,” said Yuliya Barabash, founder and managing partner at SBSB Fintech Lawyers. The main obstacle remains stablecoin yield rules. Banking industry representatives fear high returns will trigger deposit outflows from traditional institutions, undermining smaller banks’ stability. Tillis said negotiators need more time to find a compromise between banks and crypto firms.
Prediction markets flash amber; capital eyes Dubai and Singapore
On Polymarket, odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 climbed to roughly 44% after Moreno’s remarks, far from a confident yes. Finbold noted that expectations have been “slashed” by about a third in five days amid Senate delay. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has repeatedly warned that every month of US dithering pushes digital asset innovation toward hubs like Dubai and Singapore, which actively court American crypto capital with clearer licensing, tax, and tokenization regimes. Q1 2026 saw a record $297 billion in global venture funding, with growing slices for crypto and AI-adjacent infrastructure, while Y Combinator made its first stablecoin investment this April.
With or without the CLARITY Act, capital will move. The difference, as Moreno and industry advocates stress, is whether it moves under a US legal framework with institutional guardrails and SEC-CFTC clarity — or whether Washington lets the window close with the May recess gavel, watching its last real shot at shaping the next decade of crypto market structure vanish.