The CPAC 2026 straw poll put Vice President JD Vance at 53% as the top choice for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio reached 35%. The vote was held in Grapevine, Texas, and drew participation from more than 1,600 attendees.
Vance stays ahead, but Rubio cuts the gap sharply
Vance finished 18 points ahead of Rubio in this year’s poll. That margin was much wider a year ago: Vance posted 61% and Rubio just 3%, a spread of 58 points. The shift suggests Rubio has gained ground quickly inside the conservative gathering, even though Vance still holds a clear lead. Support for all other potential contenders remained in the single digits. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. tied for third place at 2% each.
Trump skipped the event as divisions surfaced inside MAGA
One of the most notable developments at this year’s CPAC was Donald Trump’s absence, his first time missing the event in a decade. Vance also did not attend, yet still won by a wide margin. At the same time, debate over war with Iran exposed an unusual split inside the MAGA camp. Former Congressman Matt Gaetz said on site that a ground invasion of Iran would leave the United States “poorer and less safe,” drawing strong attention from the right.
Rubio, by contrast, has gained visibility during the current war debate. Donors are also being asked more directly whether they favor Vance or Rubio. Both men have publicly said they do not view each other as rivals and have described one another as teammates, but the latest polling makes the competition hard to ignore.
Polymarket odds broadly match the CPAC picture
Data from Polymarket shows a similar ranking in the market for the Republican nomination. Vance stands at 37%, while Rubio is at 21%. The order is unchanged, and the distance between them is broadly in line with the CPAC straw poll.
In the market for the eventual winner of the 2028 presidential election, Vance is priced at 18%. California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, is at 17%. That leaves the two nearly even in the broader race for the White House.