Bitcoin still has support, but its recovery remains uneven, according to CryptoQuant.
Exchange reserves rose, but that alone does not signal selling
The firm said Bitcoin held on exchanges increased from about 2.67 million BTC in early October to roughly 2.68 million BTC. Even so, that level remains well below where it stood in January. CryptoQuant said low exchange reserves do not necessarily mean supply is continuing to tighten, since transfers may reflect custody changes. By the same token, a rise in reserves on its own is not proof of selling.
Spot demand slipped back into negative territory
CryptoQuant said the recovery in spot demand has run into setbacks. Thirty-day spot demand briefly moved close to zero, then turned negative again. Perpetual futures demand, however, remained positive and continued to support overall demand.
Whale activity shows a split picture
Holder behavior varied by wallet size. Addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC were still net accumulators over the past 60 days, though that pace was below the peak seen in late September. The 1,000 to 10,000 BTC cohort saw net reductions move close to zero. Wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC remained negative. CryptoQuant said that means accumulation has not yet broadened across the market.
What a firmer recovery would require
The firm said conditions that support a Bitcoin bottom are still in place. For a more durable recovery, it said spot demand needs to remain strong, buyers need to absorb BTC returning to exchanges, and accumulation needs to spread to more holder groups.
CryptoQuant also said expectations around the U.S. midterm elections and monetary policy must turn into actual buying. The key question, it said, is whether rising prices can attract a buyer base that keeps expanding and stays in the market.