CryptoQuant said Bitcoin still has conditions that could support a bottom, but the recovery remains uneven across key market indicators. The firm noted that exchange reserves rose from about 2.67 million BTC at the start of October to roughly 2.68 million BTC, though that level remains well below where it stood in January. It also cautioned that low reserves do not automatically mean supply is still tightening, and reserve increases alone are not proof of selling pressure because transfers may reflect custody changes.
On the demand side, CryptoQuant said 30-day spot demand, after briefly nearing zero, turned negative again, pointing to a stalled recovery in spot buying. Perpetual futures demand stayed positive and continued to support aggregate demand. Whale activity was also mixed rather than broad-based: addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC were still net accumulators over the past 60 days, but below the peak seen in late September; the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC cohort saw net reductions approach zero; and wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC remained negative. According to CryptoQuant, a firmer rebound would require sustained spot demand, buyers capable of absorbing BTC flowing back to exchanges, and accumulation spreading across a wider set of holder groups.
Bitcoin still has support, but its recovery is unfolding unevenly, according to CryptoQuant’s latest analysis.
The firm said exchange reserves have risen from about 2.67 million BTC at the start of October to roughly 2.68 million BTC. Even so, that figure remains far below the level seen in January. CryptoQuant added that low reserves do not necessarily mean supply is continuing to contract, and transfers may instead reflect custody changes. A rise in reserves, on its own, is also not enough to prove that selling is taking place.
Spot demand has also lost momentum. CryptoQuant said 30-day spot demand briefly moved close to zero before turning negative again, a sign that the recovery in spot buying has run into resistance. Demand in perpetual futures remained positive, which helped support overall demand.
Whale behavior was split across holder groups. Addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC were still net accumulators over the past 60 days, but the pace was below the peak reached in late September. The 1,000 to 10,000 BTC cohort saw net reductions move close to zero, while the group holding more than 10,000 BTC stayed in negative territory. In CryptoQuant’s view, accumulation is not yet broad-based.
The firm said conditions that could support Bitcoin forming a bottom are still in place. For a more solid recovery to take hold, however, spot demand would need to remain sustained, buyers would need to absorb BTC returning to exchanges, and accumulation would need to spread to more holder groups.
CryptoQuant also said market expectations around the U.S. midterm elections and monetary policy must turn into actual buying. The key question, it said, is whether rising prices can attract a buyer base that keeps expanding and remains durable over time.
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