XRP’s on-chain profitability has turned negative, according to Glassnode. In an analysis posted on X on Feb. 9, the analytics firm said XRP broke below aggregate holder cost basis, a shift that coincided with rising sell-side pressure and a sharp change in holder behavior. Glassnode said the move triggered panic selling, with market participants realizing meaningful losses on-chain.
The key metric in the analysis is SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio. It compares the price at which coins are spent on-chain with the price at which they were originally acquired. A reading above 1 means holders are spending XRP in profit, while a reading below 1 shows losses are being realized. Glassnode said XRP’s 7-day exponential moving average for SOPR fell from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 now. In practical terms, the average XRP currently moving across the network is being sold below cost.
Break Below Cost Basis Points to Stronger Loss Realization
Glassnode described the loss of aggregate holder cost basis as a behavioral break, not just a price event. Once that level gave way, more coins began moving at a loss, indicating that some holders were exiting positions under pressure. The firm’s wording was direct: panic selling followed, and realized losses grew.
The historical comparison in the chart adds context. Glassnode said the present setup closely resembles the September 2021 to May 2022 stretch, when SOPR stayed in a sub-1 range through a prolonged consolidation phase before conditions stabilized. That earlier period was marked by extended loss realization, weaker speculative participation, and sideways price action as the market absorbed supply.
Behavior Signal, Not a Price Call
Glassnode framed SOPR as a way to track holder response under current conditions rather than as a tool for calling the next price move. With longer-term smoothing, the indicator highlights sustained behavioral trends instead of short-lived volatility. XRP hovering near or below breakeven suggests that the market is still working through pressure, with weaker positions leaving and remaining holders sitting on deeper losses.
Historically, sub-1 SOPR readings have often reflected stress across the holder base. They have also appeared during periods when excess supply was being cleared and the market was moving toward balance. For XRP, the immediate message from the on-chain data is clear: loss-taking has widened, and holder behavior has shifted into a more defensive phase.