Hyperliquid says permissionless HIP-4 deployments nearly tripled prediction market volume, with access rules still the main constraint

News Editor

2026-09-03 09:09:16

Hyperliquid Research Collective said trading on Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 prediction market layer accelerated after the platform opened third-party permissionless deployments on Aug. 29. According to the report, HIP-4 averaged about $545,000 in daily volume during the first 28 days of August, then climbed to $1.97 million on Aug. 31 and reached $2.75 million over the past 24 hours. Active traders increased from 1,256 to 1,841. The report said Outcome has been the main beneficiary of the change, now accounting for nearly 85% of HIP-4 trading volume. Its $1 million trading incentive program was also cited as a driver of deeper liquidity. HRC argued that Hyperliquid’s main edge is its unified account structure, which lets prediction markets share the same account environment as perpetual futures and HIP-3 assets, allowing users to hedge perpetual positions with prediction market contracts. HRC added that sports prediction markets could represent HIP-4’s largest growth area. It also said the current bottleneck is not on-chain deployment, but regulatory access. In the U.S., the market may fall under frameworks involving the CFTC and SEC, while sports contracts may face gambling-related scrutiny.

Hyperliquid Research Collective said in a report released on Sept. 3 that trading on Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 prediction market layer rose quickly after the platform opened third-party permissionless deployments on Aug. 29.

According to the report, HIP-4 posted average daily volume of about $545,000 during the first 28 days of August. After the deployment rules were opened, single-day volume rose to $1.97 million on Aug. 31, while volume over the past 24 hours reached $2.75 million. The number of active traders increased from 1,256 to 1,841.

Outcome captured most of the new activity

HRC said prediction market project Outcome has been the main beneficiary so far, accounting for nearly 85% of HIP-4 trading volume. The report also pointed to Outcome’s $1 million trading incentive program as a factor that pushed liquidity higher.

Unified accounts are central to the pitch

HRC said Hyperliquid’s core advantage lies in its unified account system. Prediction markets can share the same account environment with perpetual futures and HIP-3 assets, and users can hedge perpetual positions with prediction market contracts. The report said this is an experience that platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket do not currently offer.

HRC added that sports prediction markets could be the biggest growth area for HIP-4. During the World Cup, cumulative volume in HIP-4-related markets reached $189.5 million, equal to about 3% of global World Cup prediction market volume.

Regulatory access remains the key limit

Even so, HRC said HIP-4’s main constraint at this stage is not on-chain deployment but regulatory access. In the United States, the market touches regulatory frameworks involving agencies such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Sports prediction markets, in particular, could face gambling-related regulatory scrutiny.

The report said HIP-4 has already shown that permissionless deployment can quickly lift trading scale. Whether it can expand market share from here will depend on the regulatory environment, a recovery in sports markets, and future governance votes.

This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan.

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