Memory Chip Inventory Drops Below 10 Days, Warning of Historic Shortage
KB Securities issued a warning on Monday that memory semiconductor inventories at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have fallen to less than 10 days of supply, indicating a severe shortage of available supply next year. The brokerage said that AI infrastructure investment is expanding at an unprecedented pace, putting extreme pressure on the memory chip market.
Demand Outpacing Supply by Double Digits
A key factor is the industry's shift to HBM4. The new memory type requires about three times the wafer capacity of traditional DRAM, and with limited wafer capacity, the production of conventional DRAM will be further constrained. KB Securities forecasts that DRAM and NAND demand will exceed supply by more than 10 percentage points next year. Research director Kim Dong-won said, "AI servers will consume HBM, server DDR5, and enterprise SSDs, potentially leading to a historic shortage."
Global hyperscale data center operators have raised their AI infrastructure investment expectations to $1.3 trillion for next year, a 60% increase year-over-year. The firm expects memory semiconductors to account for 57% of total AI infrastructure investment in 2026, up from 14% last year. TrendForce projects an even higher ratio of up to 68%.
Stock Prices Under Pressure
Samsung Electronics shares have fallen nearly 28% from their peak, while SK Hynix has dropped nearly 40%.