Meta is jumping into the prediction market space. According to an anonymous source cited by The New York Times, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has ordered his team to build a new app tentatively named Arena, which will operate independently of Facebook, Instagram, or WhatsApp.
Points for Now, Real Money Later?
Unlike existing platforms, Arena will initially use a points-based system similar to video games, allowing users to forecast event outcomes without putting real cash on the line. However, Meta has not ruled out adding money betting functionality in the future. The prediction market is currently dominated by Kalshi and blockchain-based Polymarket, both valued in the tens of billions of dollars. An internal source called the project “experimental but a top priority.”
Regulatory Heat Bites
The multi-billion-dollar industry is drawing increased scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers. Recent cases of alleged insider trading on Kalshi and Polymarket have emerged, and last weekend The Wall Street Journal reported that Polymarket allegedly hired dozens of social media influencers to shoot fake betting videos claiming huge wins. These scandals have put the industry under a harsh spotlight. Meta's decision to avoid real money at launch may be a strategic move to sidestep legal risks.