Micron Technology is set to report fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results after the close of U.S. trading on Wednesday. FactSet data shows analysts expect earnings per share for Micron’s quarter ended in August to increase about 940% from a year earlier.
If that forecast is realized, Micron could overtake Nvidia for the first time in at least two and a half years and become the largest single contributor to S&P 500 profit growth in the third quarter.
Impact on S&P 500 earnings growth
FactSet expects third-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 to rise 29.1% year over year. Excluding Micron, that growth rate would fall to 24%, which means Micron’s earnings expansion alone would lift the index-wide pace by about 5 percentage points.
The backdrop is stronger demand from AI servers for high-bandwidth memory and other storage products, while supply expansion remains relatively limited. That combination has improved memory chip pricing and profitability.
Micron’s ranking has climbed
Micron’s contribution ranking within S&P 500 profit growth has moved from ninth place in the third quarter of last year to sixth in the fourth quarter, and then to third in the first half of this year.
HBM4 progress is another focal point
Another major item in this earnings report is the production timeline for HBM4. Mehdi Hosseini, an analyst at Susquehanna, said large-scale production and shipments tied to Nvidia’s Rubin platform may be weighted more toward after April 2027. On that view, a meaningful revenue boost from HBM4 for Micron may mainly arrive in 2027.
He also expects HBM4 average selling prices to be more than 50% above current HBM3e levels. Hosseini puts Micron’s fiscal 2027 earnings per share at about $200, above the broader market average estimate of about $165.
Share performance and market value
Micron shares have climbed nearly 280% so far this year, giving the company a market capitalization of about $1.2 trillion.