Moody's has offered a temporary relief for the banking sector: stablecoins do not pose a systemic threat in the short term — but that "temporary" comes with caveats.
$300 Billion Market Cap, Yet Impact 'Limited'
Abhi Srivastava, Vice President of Digital Economy at Moody's Investors Service, told CoinTelegraph that stablecoin usage remains constrained, even as the market cap topped $300 billion by end of last year. "For the banking industry, the disruption risk appears limited at this stage. U.S. restrictions on paying interest on stablecoins mean they are unlikely to significantly replace traditional deposits domestically," he said. He added that existing U.S. payment infrastructure is already "fast, low-cost, and reliable," limiting stablecoins' edge in local payments. The regulatory framework itself is the thickest firewall against stablecoin penetration into the banking system.
Cross-Border Payments and On-Chain Finance: Stablecoins' Real Expansion Track
Srivastava sees stablecoins' real momentum in cross-border commerce, on-chain financial applications, and emerging market payments — areas where traditional banking infrastructure is weak and inefficient. He noted that as stablecoin market cap grows and tokenized real-world assets (RWA) become more common, banks will face increasing competition. Over the long term, this could lead to deposit outflows and pressure on lending capacity. That's not alarmism, but a natural extension of structural trends.
CLARITY Act: Yield Ban Stalls Bill in Congress
The core battle over stablecoin regulation is unfolding in Congress. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (CLARITY Act) is the highest-profile comprehensive crypto regulatory framework, covering asset classification, regulatory jurisdiction, and market oversight — but it remains stuck. A major hurdle is the provision banning interest-bearing stablecoins. Coinbase and other crypto firms publicly opposed early drafts, citing lack of legal protection for open-source developers and the innovation stifling effect of the ban. Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina said he plans a revised draft, but Politico reports the new version also faced opposition and hasn't been released. Industry executives warn that failure to pass CLARITY Act could invite harsher regulatory actions — a legislative vacuum often breeds crackdowns.
The Real Cost of the Yield Ban: Data Speaks
The argument for banning yield lacks data support. The White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) quantified that a ban would only increase U.S. bank lending by about $2.1 billion — a mere 0.02% of total lending. But Standard Chartered analysts paint a different picture: if the yield ban is lifted, up to $500 billion could flow from traditional bank deposits into stablecoins by 2028. The gap between these numbers reflects the tug-of-war among stakeholders — banks' fears may not match actual risk. The bill still faces at least five hurdles: Senate Banking Committee markup, 60-vote threshold in the Senate, reconciliation with the Agriculture Committee version, integration with the House's July 2025 version, and finally presidential signature. Each step is uncertain.
Short-Term Safety, Long-Term Pressure: Banks' Reality
Moody's assessment offers a neutral verdict: no immediate worry, but don't get complacent. Srivastava's core argument: the regulatory framework remains the biggest constraint on stablecoin expansion. Once it loosens, competition could shift quickly. The tension between stablecoins and traditional banks is essentially a race against regulatory lag: stablecoin technology has already outpaced regulation, and how fast lawmakers catch up will determine who controls the next decade's financial infrastructure. The fate of the CLARITY Act is a key measure of that race.