Nanya Technology and Winbond Electronics both reported record September revenue as memory prices continued to rise, and both companies also set new quarterly highs in the third quarter. Analysts cited in the source material said the supply-demand imbalance is likely to persist before new capacity comes online, leaving room for prices to increase again in the fourth quarter.
September revenue and third-quarter sales both hit records
According to United Daily News, Nanya posted NT$45.091 billion in consolidated revenue for September, up 0.9% from August and 576.62% from a year earlier. The company has now logged 11 consecutive months of record monthly revenue. Winbond, whose consolidated revenue includes subsidiaries such as Nuvoton Technology, reported NT$28.249 billion for September, up 3.44% month over month and 256.67% year over year, extending its own record run to 10 straight months.
For the full third quarter, Nanya recorded NT$133.649 billion in revenue, up 61.9% from the second quarter and 611.7% from a year earlier. Winbond reported NT$82.331 billion, up 37.58% quarter over quarter and 278.18% year over year. Both figures were record highs for a single quarter.
For the first three quarters, Nanya’s cumulative revenue reached NT$265.285 billion, up 626.95% from a year earlier, while Winbond posted NT$180.427 billion, up 187.39%.
Analysts raise Nanya DRAM shipment and pricing forecasts
Commercial Times reported that analysts revised their view on Nanya’s third-quarter DRAM bit shipments. Their earlier estimate called for an 8% decline from the previous quarter, but that has now been raised to a 5% quarter-over-quarter increase. The expected gain in average selling price, or ASP, was also lifted sharply, from 32% to 50%.
The reasons cited were twofold: some contracts with terms of six months to one year were repriced starting in July, and supply of specialty DRAM remained tight. With both shipment volume and pricing moving higher, analysts expect Nanya’s third-quarter gross margin to continue improving. They also see room for fourth-quarter DRAM ASP to rise another 10% from the prior quarter.
The same report said Nanya’s current production capacity can meet only about 50% to 60% of customer demand. Some large customers have not received allocations, and long-term agreements now account for more than 60% of coverage. Before new fab capacity comes online, the supply shortfall is expected to remain in place.
Winbond gross margin seen reaching 76.3% in the third quarter
A local brokerage said Winbond faced severe shortages in specialty DRAM and SLC NAND flash memory during the third quarter, with prices estimated to have climbed 40% to 50% from the previous quarter. NOR Flash prices were estimated to have risen about 30% over the same period because major cloud service provider customers built up inventory aggressively, crowding out capacity for other applications.
The brokerage projected Winbond’s third-quarter consolidated gross margin could rise to 76.3%, setting a new record, while earnings per share were estimated at NT$8.97. In the fourth quarter, memory price gains are expected to cool from third-quarter peaks to a range of 8% to 13%. Even so, DRAM capacity expansion is expected to lift shipments, pushing quarterly revenue to about NT$92.6 billion, gross margin to 79%, and quarterly EPS to NT$10.81. Full-year EPS was estimated at about NT$27.08.
For a longer horizon, the same brokerage projected Winbond’s EPS could reach NT$69.28 in 2027 and NT$79.92 in 2028. It estimated quarterly consolidated gross margin over the next two years in a range of 75.3% to 81.6% and maintained a Buy rating with a target price of NT$218.
Winbond announces $1.12 billion deal for Infineon business
On Sept. 16, Winbond said it had signed a share purchase agreement with Infineon Technologies LLC, a subsidiary of Infineon, to acquire all equity in a reorganized NOR Flash and F-RAM business for a base cash consideration of $1.12 billion.
The business traces its roots to Spansion and has an established position in automotive and industrial-control NOR Flash markets. Related products have also recently passed validation for the server baseboard management controller, or BMC, supply chain. The source material said the market view is that the acquisition could expand Winbond’s product portfolio and market share while also creating synergies in brand, talent, customers and product certifications, improving its penetration in automotive, industrial and server markets.
Nanya wins approval for Pingtung Science Park project
Nanya was also approved on Oct. 1 by Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Council to enter Pingtung Science Park, where it will establish a Pingtung branch focused on advanced semiconductor 3D wafer packaging and testing. According to the Southern Taiwan Science Park Bureau cited in the source, the company plans to use through-silicon via, or TSV, and wafer stacking technologies to develop memory modules with high capacity, high bandwidth, low latency and low power consumption.
Nanya is scheduled to hold its third-quarter earnings conference on Oct. 12. Market attention is centered on DRAM supply and demand, price trends and progress on the new Pingtung facility. In its latest earnings call, Micron said the memory market could remain undersupplied over the next two years and that there are still no signs of a rapid return to balance in DRAM. With supply expansion lagging demand, the operating outlook for both Nanya and Winbond remains in focus.