Nomura Securities said in a July 14, 2026 research note, citing data from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, that Japanese package substrate shipments reached JPY 27.8 billion in May, up 36% from a year earlier and marking a record high. Shipment area rose 10% per square meter, while average pricing climbed 23% to JPY 1.356 million. The report said packaging demand tied to NVIDIA’s Rubin platform is expected to ramp this summer, with August seen as the latest point for volume expansion. Nomura added that the bigger variable may be a possible shift in Rubin Ultra from a four-die structure to a dual-module design, alongside the integration challenges created by HBM4 routing upgrades and larger interposers. The note also pointed to Intel’s EMIB-T announcement at ECTC, which is expected to be ready for mass-production preparation in 2026 and could integrate as many as 12 HBM4 stacks without an interposer, while improving voltage drop by 68% to 80% versus EMIB. TSMC, Nomura said, remains ahead through its 3DFabric Alliance and advantages in power delivery and thermal management.
Nomura Securities said in a research report published on July 14, 2026, citing data from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, that Japan’s package substrate shipment value reached JPY 27.8 billion in May, up 36% year over year and setting a record high.
The report said shipment area per square meter increased 10% from a year earlier, while the average selling price rose 23% to JPY 1.356 million.
Rubin demand ramp enters focus
Nomura said packaging demand for NVIDIA Rubin is set to scale up this summer, with August seen as the latest point for that volume ramp.
Still, the report said the more important variable may be a possible change in Rubin Ultra from a four-die structure to a dual-module structure, as well as the challenge of integrating larger interposers as HBM4 routing becomes more complex.
Intel EMIB-T and TSMC positioning
The note said Intel introduced EMIB-T at ECTC and is expected to complete preparation for mass production in 2026. Under that approach, up to 12 HBM4 units could be integrated without using an interposer, while voltage drop improves by 68% to 80% compared with EMIB.
TSMC, according to Nomura, continues to hold a lead through its 3DFabric Alliance and its advantages in power delivery and heat dissipation.
What Nomura sees as the next battleground
Nomura said the main battleground in next-generation packaging will center on power delivery, thermal management, CPO and 3D hybrid bonding. Excess returns in the package substrate industry, the report added, will come from the ability to bind with customers’ technology roadmaps.
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