ChainCatcher reported, citing an NYDIG research note, that Bitcoin dropped 13.4% in the second quarter of 2026, bringing its year-to-date decline to 32.9%.
Over the same period, the Nasdaq 100 rose 27.7% and technology stocks gained 43.5%. NYDIG said the contrast suggests the latest Bitcoin decline was not the result of macro-driven risk aversion, but of supply pressure specific to Bitcoin itself.
Strategy’s framework cited as the main source of pressure
According to the report, the main pressure point came from Strategy (MSTR) and its “digital credit capital framework,” which authorized the sale of about $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to cover capital structure obligations.
NYDIG said this marked a shift in which the largest historical marginal buyer moved from ongoing accumulation to active monetization. The report added that the broader DAT complex had moved from being a demand engine to becoming a supply risk.
ETF flows were weak, though one product stood out
On the ETF side, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.9 billion in net outflows in the second quarter. At the same time, Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin trust brought in $364.8 million of inflows, which NYDIG said shows distribution channels remain competitive.
Derivatives positioning points to liquidation risk
NYDIG also pointed to derivatives markets. With spot demand weak and both ETF products and stablecoins continuing to see outflows, the report said positive funding rates and a rise in open interest indicate leveraged longs are rebuilding positions.
That setup leaves room for another round of downside if forced liquidations hit the market.
Bitcoin remains far below its record high
The report said Bitcoin is now down 54.3% from its all-time high of $126,000 set on Oct. 6, 2025. It also referenced the 2018 and 2022 cycles, noting a comparison with drawdowns that narrowed gradually toward about 70%.