Prediction markets are pricing a 72% chance that OpenAI’s next model, Astra, internally known as GPT-6, will be released by Sept. 30, and a 59% chance of a release by Sept. 15. OpenAI has not announced a formal launch date. On Aug. 7, the company said internal tests showed Astra made notable gains in autonomous coding and cybersecurity, but it could not rule out “critical cyber capability,” so it slowed the rollout. Under OpenAI’s safety framework, that level means a model could, without human help, find and build usable zero-day exploits against multiple hardened systems. Polymarket shows trading volumes of about $27,600 on the Sept. 15 contract and about $35,600 on the Sept. 30 contract, while Myriad traders put the Sept. 30 deadline at 31%. OpenAI also said Astra was not involved in the Hugging Face incident.
Prediction markets now put a 72% chance on OpenAI’s next model, Astra, being released by Sept. 30, with a 59% chance of a launch by Sept. 15. OpenAI has not announced a formal release date.
On Aug. 7, OpenAI said internal testing showed Astra had made significant progress in autonomous coding and cybersecurity, but the company could not rule out that it had “critical cyber capability,” so it slowed the rollout.
Under OpenAI’s safety framework, a model at that level could, without human help, discover and build usable zero-day exploits against multiple hardened systems.
Polymarket data show the Sept. 15 contract at 59% with about $27,600 in volume, and the Sept. 30 contract at about 72% with roughly $35,600 in volume. Myriad market traders put Sept. 30 as the most likely deadline for GPT-6 at 31%. OpenAI also said Astra was not involved in the Hugging Face incident.
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