Over $80 million has been wagered on a Polymarket market asking whether Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) would sell Bitcoin by May 31. The company sold 32 BTC worth roughly $2.5 million between May 26 and May 31, but disclosed the sale on June 1. Based on the timing of disclosure, Polymarket moved to resolve the market as "No," arguing that confirmation was not publicly available within the market's timeframe. The decision has triggered a challenge from users, pushing the outcome to a final dispute process.
Transaction Within Deadline, Disclosure After
Strategy's regulatory filing on June 1 revealed the sale, which took place before the market's cutoff. Polymarket stated that confirmation achieved outside the market's timeframe does not qualify for resolution. The platform added that no on-chain data or credible reporting confirmed the sale before the deadline expired. Users who bet "Yes" argue that the underlying event occurred before May 31 regardless of when it was disclosed. One commenter wrote that the platform should "trade truth, not technicalities," while another said they had lost confidence in the platform. A third described the decision as "unbelievable."
Market Still Priced at 99.9% 'No', Decision Goes to UMA
As the dispute unfolded, the market remained heavily priced in favor of a "No" outcome, with approximately 99.9% odds despite objections from "Yes" shareholders. Because two proposed resolutions have been disputed, the final decision now rests with UMA tokenholders, who power the oracle system used by Polymarket. The review process can take up to two days. Polymarket noted that if no statement is issued by 12:00 a.m. UTC Wednesday, the order book will be cleared.
This sale marked Strategy's first Bitcoin sell-off since 2022. The firm had long maintained it would never sell its Bitcoin holdings, and after the disclosure, Bitcoin dropped 2.5% to $70,815 within five hours, according to market data.
Other Markets Resolve Smoothly; Historical Parallels
Other Strategy-related prediction markets asking about sales by June 30 and Dec. 31 have already resolved to "Yes" without disputes. For the May 31 market, however, the final outcome hinges on how UMA voters interpret the timing of confirmation versus the timing of the sale itself. Last year, a similar dispute arose over a Polymarket market asking whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit during a specified period. That market generated roughly $237 million in volume and went to UMA tokenholders after participants disagreed over whether military-style attire met the definition of a suit. Critics then warned that subjective interpretations could influence market outcomes.