The probability of the Clarity Act—a U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework—being signed into law in 2026 has jumped to 70%, according to the latest data from decentralized prediction market Polymarket. The sharp rise reflects growing confidence in a legislative compromise that addresses the core dispute: who gets to earn interest on stablecoin reserves.
The 70% Bet: Banks vs. Coinbase on the 'Retail Loophole'
At the heart of the standoff lies revenue distribution. A CoinDesk report flagged that the original bill posed an "existential threat" to Coinbase's stablecoin business, which generates over $1.3 billion annually. The emerging compromise carves out a delicate balance:
- Bank protection: Exchanges would be barred from paying interest on stablecoins to regulated financial institutions, soothing banks' fears of deposit outflows.
- Retail rewards: Ordinary users would still be allowed to earn rewards on their stablecoin holdings, preserving Coinbase's core user engagement and revenue stream.
Analysts say the 70% Polymarket odds imply traders are betting that this "retail exemption" will survive the final markup. If it does, Coinbase will have little incentive to withdraw support, keeping the bill on track for passage in the first half of 2026. Should banks instead lobby Congress to kill all distributions, Coinbase would fight back—likely collapsing the prediction market and derailing the legislation.
Polymarket as a Washington Barometer
The odds aren't just a gambling artifact. They mirror real-world political dynamics. The Clarity Act previously stalled over a "no self-dealing" clause targeting politicians, which was rejected by the White House. The current 70% figure suggests key stakeholders—including crypto firms and traditional finance—are converging on a deal.
The next few weeks will be critical. Any signal that the retail exemption is under threat would send Polymarket odds tumbling. But for now, the market is pricing in a win-win outcome: banks get regulatory moats, exchanges keep retail revenue, and the U.S. stablecoin industry finally gets a rulebook.