Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said at Token2049 in Singapore that crypto trading is increasingly resembling "irrational exuberance" and a "hot potato" game, with traders rushing into tokens they do not believe are worth much in the hope of exiting after a 100x move.
"People think they’re buying something, but that thing is actually worthless, and they still buy it. If it can go up 100 times, they try to find a way to sell it before it goes back to zero," Coplan said.
Coplan’s criticism of 100x token chasing
Coplan framed parts of the current crypto market as a search for the next 100x token rather than a market built on asset value. In his description, traders are not focused on what a token is worth in any fundamental sense. The trade is about getting in early enough and passing the position on before the price unwinds.
The report links that view to the phrase "irrational exuberance," taken from Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert J. Shiller’s 2000 book of the same name. The book examined how optimism spreads through psychology, social momentum, and feedback loops before turning into a bubble. In the report’s comparison with today’s crypto market, traders remain drawn by the prospect of getting rich quickly, even though only a small share will actually catch the biggest winners.
The piece also cited BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who said late last year that altcoin season had never really ended, but that "traders missed most of the winners in this cycle." The report used that comment to argue that the issue was not a total lack of market gains, but poor positioning by many participants. That fear of missing out, it said, helps explain the speculative behavior Coplan was describing.
Prediction markets draw traders looking for clearer odds
Coplan did not reject crypto trading outright. Instead, he said some traders are moving toward prediction markets in search of a more practical setup. His argument was simple: on Polymarket, there is no exponential upside, but the odds of winning are easier to predict.
According to data cited from DefiLlama, Polymarket logged $1.21 billion in prediction-market volume over the past seven days, making it the world’s second-largest prediction market by that measure. Kalshi, which the report described as backed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, ranked first with $2.3 billion over the same period. The article said both platforms have expanded over the past year, pointing to strong demand for contracts tied to defined outcomes.
The report also referenced a year-end note from 10x Research, which said prediction markets are becoming a new battleground in the crypto economy. In that framing, data-driven elite traders profit from information asymmetry and price gaps against retail users, while casual investors are still chasing quick money. The report said Coplan’s view fits that thesis: as competition shifts toward tighter pricing, retail traders relying on luck to find 100x tokens may find it harder to survive.
Regulatory pressure continues to build
The article said the fast growth of prediction markets has brought closer regulatory scrutiny.
It reported that JPMorgan Chase ended its banking relationship with Polymarket on Aug. 14 because of regulatory concerns. At the same time, the bank reportedly said it would still be willing to act as an underwriter if Polymarket were to pursue a listing in the future. In the report’s reading, that does not amount to a total rejection, but it does point to an expectation that the platform operate inside a compliance framework.
Pressure is also coming from U.S. states. According to the article, more than 10 states have filed lawsuits against Polymarket, Kalshi, or both, with the dispute centered on whether sports-event contracts amount to illegal gambling. Outside the U.S., the report said countries including Singapore have blocked or limited user access to Polymarket. The common question behind those moves is where prediction markets end and gambling begins.
A shifting boundary between crypto trading and prediction markets
The report argued that Coplan’s remarks point to a broader shift as the crypto market matures. As Bitcoin and Ethereum show relatively lower volatility and the signal-to-noise ratio in altcoins worsens, some capital is moving toward products with clearer structures and more defined outcomes. Prediction markets are one example.
It highlighted two developments to watch. First, Polymarket recently raised $3 billion in a financing round led by 1789 Capital, a fund linked to Trump Jr. The report presented that as a sign that traditional capital is entering the sector, bringing higher sensitivity around compliance and brand risk. Second, the CFTC has started classifying prediction contracts as derivatives. The article said that could give platforms legal protection, while also exposing them to tougher transparency requirements.
In that view, the looser growth model long associated with crypto trading may not be repeated in prediction markets.