Polymarket's contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 collapsed to 28% Yes on Saturday after Iran reimposed shipping restrictions and gunboats fired on at least one tanker, turning back more than 20 vessels. The reversal came less than 24 hours after Iran's foreign minister declared the strait "completely open" under a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire.
Iran Reverses Course Within 24 Hours
On April 17, oil prices fell roughly 10% and equity markets rallied after Iran's foreign minister announced the strait was open. The Polymarket May normalization contract briefly touched intraday highs near 82% Yes. But Iranian officials said the U.S. continuing its naval blockade on Iranian ports constituted a "breach of trust" and a violation of ceasefire terms. The April 30 contract, which had over $16 million in total volume, dropped 41% from its recent peak.
May Contract Holds at 69% While June Sees 81%
Despite the April collapse, the May normalization contract sits at 69% Yes with $1.3 million in volume. A companion market on normalization by end of June trades at 81% Yes, indicating traders view longer-term resolution as more likely. Insurance premiums for vessels attempting transit remain sharply elevated; shipping firms have broadly suspended sailings.
Technical Hurdle: 60 Ships Per Day in 12 Days
Resolution depends on IMF Portwatch reporting a 7-day moving average of at least 60 ship arrivals covering container, dry bulk, Ro-Ro, general cargo, and tanker vessels. Before the crisis began in early March 2026, daily transit calls routinely exceeded 60. Current daily counts range between 5 and 16. Kpler data showed 8 tankers transited early April 18 before the crackdown resumed. MarineTraffic recorded multiple vessels executing U-turns near Larak Island.
White House Maintains Blockade Stance
President Trump welcomed the April 17 announcement but said the U.S. blockade would remain until a comprehensive deal is completed. The White House reaffirmed that position on April 18. Pakistan continues to act as intermediary, but no formal talks are scheduled and no timeline for a broader deal on Iran's nuclear program has been announced.