A Polymarket user known as noovd focused on one unusually narrow market and turned it into a large profit stream: predicting how many times Elon Musk would post in a given week. Public profile data cited in the report shows the trader, using address 0x063aeee10fbfd55b6def10da28e87a601e7deb4b, entered the platform in July 2024 and has since placed 1,281 predictions, generating net profit of $345,000. The largest single win reached $136,000, and the account still held about $6,877 in open positions.
The profit chart was mostly flat in the early months. Then it turned sharply upward. The jumps came from the same recurring market type: weekly contracts tied to Musk’s total number of posts.
Buying the neglected ranges
According to the source article, Polymarket splits Musk’s weekly post total into a series of mutually exclusive brackets, often in increments of around 20 posts, such as 200-219, 220-239, and so on, extending to extreme outcomes. Retail traders often gravitate toward middle ranges priced near 35 to 50 cents, while far-edge ranges can fall to 2 to 24 cents even when their actual probability may be closer to 15% to 30%.
That gap is where noovd concentrated. The trader reportedly bought only Yes shares, never No, did not hedge, and did not exit early. Position sizes often ranged from $4,000 to $30,000, with average entry prices between 2 and 39 cents. If the setup matched the model, the trade stayed open until Sunday settlement.
A live model built on daily posting behavior
The report says noovd fed daily Musk posting data dating back to 2022 into a model that was updated continuously. The model tracked weekday and weekend posting patterns and assigned weight to possible catalysts including Starlink launches, Tesla earnings, DOGE-related news, and xAI product developments.
By Wednesday or Thursday, the trader could estimate how many posts Musk would need over the remaining days to land inside a specific bracket. While the market leaned on broad historical averages, the model allegedly narrowed the error band to roughly plus or minus 10 to 15 posts. If a 2-cent bracket was judged to have a real probability of 18% to 25%, noovd would scale in aggressively. The article describes expected-value advantages of 8x to 20x on some trades.
Two December trades drove most of the gains
One example highlighted in the article covered the week of December 9 to 16, 2025. By Wednesday night, Musk had already posted more than 130 times. If he maintained roughly 32 to 35 posts per day over the final four days, the weekly total could land in the 260-279 range. noovd reportedly bought that bracket at an average of 2 cents, investing about $1,569. The final profit was listed at $67,686.33, a return of 4,311.87%.
The biggest dollar win came in the 420-439 bracket for the week of December 2 to 9. The article says noovd entered at an average of 24 cents, committed $49,429, and bought 208,694 shares. Settlement produced roughly $186,000, for profit of more than $130,000. Those two December trades alone accounted for over $255,000 in gains.
Why the strategy is hard to copy
The report argues that the edge did not come from guessing Musk’s mood. It came from maintaining a full historical dataset, updating a probability model every 6 to 12 hours, and staying disciplined enough to keep buying low-priced ranges that looked wrong to everyone else. The trader was not perfect, and the record included losing trades. Still, the structure of the approach was clear: accept many small misses, then let a few outsized wins wipe them out.
noovd did not spread attention across NBA scores or political contracts. The trader stayed inside one narrow, repeatable market and treated it like a specialist trade. In this case, the notable result is simple: a weekly post-count market that many users would dismiss as noise became a data-driven source of six-figure profits.