Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser informed analysts on March 10 that the kingdom's East-West Pipeline (Petroline) would reach full capacity within days. On March 28, the pipeline achieved its nominal maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day (bpd), up from a peacetime average of 1.7–2.8 million bpd. The 1,200-kilometer conduit runs from the Abqaiq oil processing facility in eastern Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
A Strategic Asset Reactivated
Built during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s specifically as a bypass route for the Strait of Hormuz, Petroline was converted from parallel natural gas liquids lines to carry crude at this elevated rate. Approximately 2 million bpd now supplies domestic refineries on Saudi Arabia's west coast, while the remaining 5 million bpd heads to Yanbu for export. However, vessel tracking data shows the five-day moving average of crude departures from Yanbu ranges between 3.66 million and 5 million bpd, with actual loading constrained by wartime scheduling and tidal windows. Analysts estimate that Saudi Arabia is moving 50%–70% of its pre-war export volumes through this overland route.
Strait of Hormuz: A Global Chokepoint
The Strait normally carries about 20% of global oil supply. Since U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran began in late February, tanker traffic through the waterway has collapsed by 90%–95%. Reports indicate Iran has mined sections of the strait and controls passage in others, effectively sealing it for the fifth consecutive week.
Oil prices have surged. WTI crude closed Friday, March 27, at $99.64–$101.18 per barrel, up more than 5% on the day and roughly 40% over the past month. Brent settled at $105.32–$112.57. Physical Dubai crude, reflecting real-term delivery for Asian buyers, traded near $126 per barrel.
Global Response and Outlook
Coordinated releases from strategic petroleum reserves total approximately 400 million barrels, the largest on record. Goldman Sachs and S&P Global have raised their price forecasts for 2026. Industry sources warn that if Hormuz traffic does not resume by mid-April, worst-case prices could reach $150–$200 per barrel.
The UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline is similarly diverting crude, offering a secondary exit for Gulf producers. Together, the two pipelines represent the main physical alternative to the Strait.
In diplomacy, President Trump praised the Iran operation, but Tehran rejected a 15-point ceasefire plan. Brent crude broke $108 on March 27, rattling global equity markets. Trump's five-day ultimatum to Iran expired around March 28 without a deal. Analysts see no near-term resolution, and U.S. retail gasoline averaged $3.91–$3.98 per gallon entering a new trading week facing further upward pressure.