A senior Bloomberg ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, has shared his outlook on the potential approval of spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), highlighting key dates and political implications. He stated that while the final deadline for Solana ETFs is mid-March 2025, the most important date between now and then is November 2024 — the U.S. presidential election.
Analyst: Election Outcome Decides Solana ETF Fate
Balchunas wrote on social media platform X on Wednesday: "Looks like Solana ETFs are going to have a final deadline of mid-March 2025. But between now and then the most imp date is in November. If Biden wins, these likely DOA. If Trump wins, anything poss." He noted that the Biden administration has taken a cautious approach to cryptocurrencies, with key officials such as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and SEC Chair Gary Gensler raising concerns about potential fraud, market manipulation, and illicit activities. This cautious stance has resulted in heightened scrutiny and regulatory actions against the crypto industry. Moreover, President Biden recently vetoed a resolution aimed at overturning the SEC’s controversial crypto rules in SAB 121. In contrast, former President and current presidential candidate Donald Trump has vowed to become the "crypto president." He has promised to end Biden’s anti-crypto policies, champion bitcoin mining, and block the Federal Reserve from launching a central bank digital currency (CBDC).
ETF Progress: Bitcoin and Ether Lead the Way
The SEC approved spot bitcoin ETFs in January, marking a pivotal moment in the integration of cryptocurrency with traditional finance. Building on this decision, the SEC is now evaluating similar ETFs for ether. To date, the SEC has approved 19b-4 forms for eight spot ether ETFs and is collaborating with issuers to finalize S-1 filings necessary for these ETFs to launch. Gensler recently indicated that he expects ether ETFs to debut this summer. In the case of Solana, two issuers — VanEck and 21Shares — have submitted filings with the SEC to introduce Solana ETFs. Additionally, 3iQ Digital Asset Management disclosed that its Solana fund has filed a preliminary prospectus for an initial public offering in Canada. This fund aspires to be the first Solana (SOL) exchange-traded product (ETP) in North America.
Balchunas's commentary reinforces the view that regulatory and political dynamics will heavily influence the approval timeline for Solana ETFs. The crypto market is closely watching the November election, seeing it as another critical turning point for the mainstream adoption of digital assets.