Spain won the 2026 FIFA World Cup on July 19, beating Argentina 1-0 after extra time at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Ferran Torres, who came off the bench, scored in the 106th minute to decide the final and deliver Spain’s second World Cup title.
Torres scores in extra time as Spain takes control of the final
Spain controlled the game for long stretches. Match figures cited in the report showed Spain finishing with 20 shots, 12 on target and 31 touches inside the box. Argentina had just two shots, none on target, and eight touches in the penalty area. Argentina goalkeeper Emi Martínez made 11 saves, setting a single-match record for a World Cup final.
Argentina also took two major blows during the match. Defensive anchor Lisandro Martínez went off injured shortly before halftime and was replaced by Otamendi. Then, in stoppage time, Enzo Fernández fouled Spain center back Pau Cubarsí, picked up his second yellow card and was sent off. That left Argentina down to 10 men for the whole of extra time.
Spain broke through in the 106th minute. Torres met a bouncing ball in the box and finished with his left foot for the only goal of the match.
The title was Spain’s first since the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, when Andrés Iniesta scored the extra-time winner against the Netherlands. The report also noted that 39-year-old Messi saw little of the ball under Spain’s high-pressure defensive setup and cut a dejected figure after the game.
Kalshi’s single final contract passes $1.27 billion
The result also settled Kalshi’s “Argentina-Spain championship” contract, which the report described as the highest-volume single contract ever seen in prediction markets. Trading volume on that market topped $1.27 billion.
Spain backers were paid out at 1.65x after settlement. Before kickoff, Kalshi had Spain priced at 59%, equivalent to 1.65x odds, while Argentina stood at 41%, or 2.34x.
The article compared that figure with other major sports markets, saying NBA Finals contracts had reached around $2 billion and the Super Bowl around $1 billion. On that basis, the World Cup final contract surpassed both prior records.
Polymarket’s World Cup winner market hits $4.28 billion
Polymarket’s separate “World Cup winner” market accumulated $4.28 billion in trading volume since opening in July 2025, making it the biggest single market in the platform’s history, according to the report. It also moved past Polymarket’s 2024 U.S. presidential election contract.
Fortune, citing Kalshi statistics, reported that World Cup-related contracts across Kalshi and Polymarket together exceeded $25 billion during the tournament. The article added that Polymarket’s global notional volume in June alone was close to $11 billion, with World Cup activity serving as the main driver.
Kalshi adds 3 million users during the tournament
CNBC reported that Kalshi added about 3 million users during the World Cup. Its June notional trading volume reached $31 billion, up 70% from May, with sports contracts accounting for 85% of the total.
CNBC also said Kalshi’s user mix shifted during the tournament. The share of female users and first-time bettors was noticeably higher than on traditional sports betting platforms.
The company’s competitive set now includes not only Polymarket but also established sports betting operators such as DraftKings and FanDuel. The article said Kalshi has been able to operate nationwide under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, framework by defining its products as contract trading rather than gambling, allowing it to avoid state-by-state gaming license requirements.
That model has been backed by federal courts in several state-level cases, the report said. It has also helped position Kalshi and Polymarket as alternatives to conventional sports betting. The article added that Polymarket’s route back into the U.S. market involved the QCX acquisition.
After settlement, the focus shifts to retention
Kalshi executives told CNBC that many of the 3 million new users arrived as one-off, event-driven participants. The next challenge is to turn them into recurring traders rather than people who only showed up for the final.
That points to a broader product push beyond sports, including contracts tied to policy, elections and economic indicators, according to the report.
The article framed the past two years of prediction markets around two milestone contracts: the 2024 U.S. presidential election, led by Polymarket, and the 2026 World Cup final, led by Kalshi. It said the next markers to watch are the August FOMC decision and the November midterm elections, and whether those events can sustain trading activity.