Tom Lee says prediction markets may be underpricing the odds of the Clarity Act passing

Tom Lee reposted analyst Sean Farrell’s view on the legislative outlook for the Clarity Act, saying Farrell’s conversations with policymakers suggest the bill has a better chance of passing than current prediction market pricing implies. Farrell also said that “recent restrictions” prevent insiders from trading on the outcome, which in his view could leave markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi underestimating the probability of passage. Lee said the takeaway from that assessment is bullish. The comments point to a gap between private policy readouts and public market pricing, at least in Farrell’s view, though no additional details about the restrictions were disclosed in the post. The remarks were shared through Lee’s X account.