President Donald Trump said he could announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve chair within roughly a week — far ahead of Jerome Powell's term ending in May 2026. The early move underscores the decision's weight for Trump's economic agenda.
Betting Markets Back Rick Rieder
Prediction platforms are already pricing in the race. On Polymarket, Rick Rieder of BlackRock led with implied probabilities between 34% and 47%. Kalshi showed his chance near 40%, making him the clear frontrunner. Rieder, known for his pro-Bitcoin stance and modern market views, is seen as someone who could steer the Fed toward a more innovation-friendly posture. Other notable candidates include Kevin Warsh and Christopher Waller, both with deep central banking backgrounds.
Powell Defends Independence
Powell recently stressed that the Federal Reserve must not be controlled by elected officials, calling central bank independence crucial for financial system trust. At the latest FOMC meeting, the Fed held rates at 3.75%, though internal divisions surfaced: Miran and Waller pushed for a 25-basis-point cut. Powell also noted that while rate reductions are more likely, a rate hike cannot be ruled out entirely.
Why Trump Wants an Early Pick
Trump has frequently criticized Powell for not cutting rates fast enough. He wants a chair who supports lower federal interest rates. Lower rates can spur business growth and cheaper loans, but also risk higher inflation. The next chair will directly shape how quickly borrowing costs fall or rise, affecting market confidence and long-term growth.
Debt Warning Adds Urgency
On January 28, 2026, Powell warned that the U.S. debt path is “unsustainable.” National debt has reached $38.5 trillion, with interest payments rising faster than defense spending. By 2034, debt could hit 122% of GDP. These figures amplify the importance of the next chair's decisions.
Political and Market Reactions
Economist Peter Schiff criticized the Fed, while Powell countered that losing independence would damage credibility. Markets remained relatively calm: stocks edged higher, gold surged, but crypto assets fell 1.11%.
If Trump announces within the week, it would be one of the year's biggest economic stories. Whether Rieder or another candidate is chosen, the next Fed chair will carry massive responsibility for interest rates, inflation control, and global market stability.