Donald Trump said on the 24th that a US-Iran peace agreement was “largely negotiated,” and prediction markets reacted fast. On Polymarket, the contract tracking whether a formal nuclear deal will be reached before January 1, 2027 climbed to 81% within 24 hours, signaling a sharp shift in trader positioning.
In a Truth Social post, Trump said the final details and terms are still being discussed and would be announced soon. He also said he had just completed a “very successful” video call with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, with Iran and a peace memorandum at the center of the discussion.
Polymarket reprices the path away from war
Money moved quickly across related contracts after Trump’s statement. While odds for a formal nuclear agreement surged, the market for “the US invades Iran before 2027” moved the other way, falling 8 percentage points to 18%.
That contract recorded $741,058 in 24-hour volume. The price action points to traders leaning more heavily toward a non-war outcome, with positions being adjusted in real time as new political headlines hit the market. The move also shows how prediction platforms can absorb geopolitical news almost instantly.
Hormuz reopening comment draws energy market attention
Trump also said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. The waterway handles about 20% of global oil exports, so any easing of restrictions there could reduce concerns around energy supply flows in the Middle East.
Based on the public statements so far, traders are repricing two questions at once: whether the US and Iran can reach a formal nuclear agreement before 2027, and whether regional tensions will escalate into direct military conflict. On the latest market move, the first scenario is drawing the stronger bet.