Nomura Securities initiated coverage on Unitree on Aug. 19 with a Buy rating and a 370 yuan price target, according to a report summarized by TechFlowPost. Based on the 151 yuan share price cited in the report, that implies 145% upside.
Nomura said Unitree is the world’s No. 1 humanoid robot company by shipments. The brokerage estimated that pure humanoid robot shipments topped 5,500 units in 2025, far ahead of peers, and described the company as one of the few embodied AI players globally that has already reached profitability. Its core view was straightforward: as embodied intelligence moves from the lab into factories and homes, the company that gets costs down to a usable level first is likely to win access to scale.
Nomura says hardware integration drives the moat
The report argued that Unitree’s main strength lies in hardware rather than algorithms. It said the company develops and manufactures in-house the four key parts of robot joint modules — motors, reducers, drivers and encoders — and also develops its own lidar.
Nomura estimated that self-developed parts account for 80% to 90% of core component costs, while externally sourced components make up only 14% to 18% of total cost. In the brokerage’s view, that level of vertical integration translates directly into pricing power. It cited the Go2 quadruped robot, priced below 10,000 yuan, and the R1 humanoid robot, launched at 29,900 yuan.
The cost structure, the report said, has led to profitability that is unusual in the sector. Unitree’s gross margin in its core business rose from 44% in 2022 to 60% in 2025. Adjusted net profit reached 590 million yuan in 2025, with a net margin of about 35%. Nomura said most global humanoid robot peers remained loss-making over the same period.
It also projected that the cost advantage would strengthen as scale expands. The bill of materials for a complete humanoid robot has already fallen below 100,000 yuan, the report said. Nomura added that an intelligent manufacturing base tied to a planned 2027 IPO fundraising project is expected to come online and push unit costs lower as capacity ramps.
Revenue forecast centers on shipment growth
Nomura forecast Unitree revenue at 2.69 billion yuan in 2026, 5.4 billion yuan in 2027 and 13.18 billion yuan in 2028. That would represent year-over-year growth of 58%, 101% and 144%, respectively. The report said volume would be the main driver, with limited impact from pricing.
Product breadth and speed are part of the lead, report says
Nomura described Unitree as having one of the most complete product matrices in the industry. Its lineup spans quadruped robots, humanoid robots, robotic arms, dexterous hands and lidar, covering what the report called a full stack of “mobility + manipulation + interaction.”
On shipments, the brokerage said Unitree delivered more than 5,500 humanoid robots and more than 26,000 quadruped robots in 2025, placing first globally in both categories.
The report also pointed to several product milestones: the world’s first backflip by a full-size electric humanoid robot in March 2024, humanoid running speed breaking 10 meters per second in early 2026, and four gold medals at the 2025 World Robot Conference.
Nomura said that as valuation frameworks for embodied AI shift from physical capability toward “brain + cerebellum,” Unitree’s ability to collect large volumes of data from real machines could become a barrier that software and model companies cannot easily replicate.
U.S. restrictions are the biggest policy risk
The report identified U.S. policy exposure as the largest uncertainty. In June 2026, the U.S. Department of Defense placed Unitree on the Section 1260H Chinese military companies list. Then, on July 28, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission added “foreign-produced advanced robotic equipment” to a restricted list, covering all mobile robots not produced in the United States, according to the article.
Nomura said Unitree’s main models currently on sale have already received FCC authorization and can continue to be sold, but new models will be barred from entering the U.S. market. It estimated that revenue from the United States accounted for 13% to 19.5% of total revenue between 2023 and 2025. Overseas revenue reached 730 million yuan in 2025, equal to 43.6% of core business revenue.
The restriction does not apply retroactively to existing models, the report said, but authorization terms may be limited to within 10 years, and new models are unlikely to receive certification. For a company with a product iteration cycle of about one year, that would gradually narrow room for incremental growth in the U.S. market.
Nomura described the issue as structural rather than cyclical. A compliance route could involve manufacturing in the United States, the report said, but it added that such a path is almost unworkable for Unitree after its inclusion on the 1260H list.
Valuation is tied to sales multiple and growth expectations
Nomura valued Unitree at 25 times expected 2027 price-to-sales and derived a 370 yuan target price from that multiple. The report said the figure is well above the roughly 9 times average for Chinese robot component suppliers, but argued the premium is justified.
Its reasoning was based on growth and margins. Nomura forecast a 2026-2028 revenue CAGR of 122% for Unitree, compared with about 30% growth expected for Chinese peers in 2027. It also noted that Unitree was already profitable in 2025, with a 60% gross margin, while some peers were still expected to post negative net margins in 2026.
The report listed several possible catalysts: commercialization of a self-developed world model or VLA model, quarterly humanoid shipments continuing to beat expectations, and volume ramp-up for new products including the R1 and H2. It also listed downside risks, including slower overseas growth due to FCC restrictions, weaker-than-expected adoption in industrial settings, and pricing pressure from intensifying competition. The article said more than 70% of humanoid robot revenue currently comes from research buyers.
Article includes a disclaimer
The original article said it was a summary and interpretation by Chaoxiang Research of a third-party brokerage report from Nomura Securities dated Aug. 19, 2026, combined with public market information. It added that the rating, target price, earnings forecasts and related judgments cited in the text reflect the views of the brokerage analyst and that analyst’s institution only, not the views of Chaoxiang Research, and do not constitute investment advice.
The article also said market decisions should be made independently and that the text should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any security.
