VanEck says Bitcoin’s quiet trading range over the past month is better read as a cautious pause than a completed bottom, with derivatives still leaning defensive, miner profitability near multi-year lows, and long-term holders continuing to lock up supply.
In its latest Bitcoin ChainCheck, the asset manager described the current phase as consolidation rather than recovery. Bitcoin closed July 12 at $63,742, flat from a month earlier, but still 33% below its six-month high and 14% under its 200-day moving average, which sits near $74,000. The sideways move followed two monthly declines: 3.6% in May and 20.5% in June.
Trading activity also cooled into the summer. Over the 30-day window, spot volume averaged about $5.1 billion a day, roughly 29% below the post-2019 norm. VanEck said that kind of softness has appeared in June through August in each of the past six years. Realized volatility dropped to 30.4% on an annualized basis, below the trailing one-year level of 43% and well under the long-run average near 81%.
Derivatives point to caution, not full capitulation
VanEck said the derivatives complex still reflects protection-seeking behavior rather than panic. The one-month put/call implied volatility skew widened to +11.4 percentage points, placing it in the 83rd percentile since 2021. The firm said traders appear willing to finance put buying by selling calls.
That mix, in VanEck’s reading, signals fear rather than capitulation. Total options premium fell 23% to $613.6 million, while the put/call premium ratio climbed to 1.49, versus an average near 0.71.
Perpetual futures funding delivered a similar message. The 30-day average funding rate stands near +4.5%, about half the long-run +8.4% level. VanEck said positioning remains far from bullish, especially after a stretch in spring when traders were effectively paid to hold short exposure.
Based on the firm’s framework, both indicators line up with below-average forward returns across the 30- to 180-day window. VanEck highlighted two signals it associates with a more definitive bottom, neither of which has arrived: skew moving above +15 points, or funding turning negative. Until one of those appears, the firm expects near-term downside pressure to outweigh the odds of a fast rebound. It added that in earlier notes, it had treated negative funding as a bullish signal.
ETP outflows dragged on demand as treasury confidence weakened
VanEck said demand turned negative over the month, tying the shift to exchange-traded product outflows. U.S. spot ETPs shed 40,010 BTC, worth about $2.40 billion. Corporate treasuries added 2,343 BTC and miners retained 1,204 BTC, leaving exchange balances to rise and absorb the gap.
The report also pointed to weaker confidence among digital asset treasury companies after Strategy used $1.38 billion to retire convertible notes. VanEck said the move left the company with a $900 million reserve and led to its first bitcoin sales since 2022. Those sales, the firm wrote, contributed to negative flows across the treasury cohort.
On-chain supply data told a different story. The share of Bitcoin held for more than one year reached 60.8% of supply, up from 59.1% six months earlier even as price fell over the same period. Another 17.7% of supply now sits in the six- to twelve-month band, meaning those coins would move into the long-term holder bucket if they remain dormant.
VanEck projects the long-term share will reach about 62% in three months and approach 63% in six months. In the firm’s tests, periods when long-term ownership is above 60% and still rising have been associated with above-average returns across multiple horizons. VanEck said that echoes an earlier finding that whales kept holding through the selloff.
The report added that selling is concentrated in the middle of the age curve, while the youngest and oldest coins remain comparatively still. Profitability metrics remain weak: net unrealized profit sits in the 17th percentile, and only 53% of supply is in profit, against a four-year average of 76%.
Miner economics are still under pressure
VanEck described miner economics as the bleakest part of the report. Network hash rate stayed near record levels, around 930 EH/s, even as price declined. That combination pushed implied hashprice down to about $30.6 per PH/s per day, close to multi-year lows.
Daily miner revenue averaged $28.5 million, down 39.5% from a year earlier. According to VanEck, that level leaves lower-efficiency machines at or below breakeven. Miner-held bitcoin remained near 1.785 million BTC, which the firm interpreted as steady selling of newly mined coins rather than outright capitulation.
The report also devoted space to miners shifting toward artificial intelligence hosting. VanEck highlighted TeraWulf’s 20-year, $19 billion lease with Anthropic and CleanSpark’s $6.6 billion deal as among the strongest unlevered yield opportunities. The firm tied those projects to the build-out it has previously linked to a $50 billion near-term funding gap.
Miner equities are down about 42% from their 52-week highs. VanEck attributed the decline to higher rates, a pause on data-center construction in New York, and skepticism around AI returns. Even so, the firm said richer contract terms, new AI deals, and spending by hyperscalers suggest the market’s de-rating may overstate the risks.
It also noted that correlation with Bitcoin has fallen across the group, which VanEck said suggests the market is pricing mining stocks more on their own company-specific fundamentals. The firm added that optimism is not shared uniformly. Some analysts, it said, have argued that an AI pivot alone will not be enough to rescue struggling miners.
Supply keeps tightening even as near-term returns look soft
VanEck’s overall conclusion is that Bitcoin may face muted returns in the near term, held back by cautious derivatives positioning and weak miner cash flow. At the same time, the firm said the supply base continues to tighten as long-term holders increase their share of outstanding coins.
For patient holders, VanEck wrote, the structural setup remains constructive.
The report was first published by Bitcoin Magazine and written by Micah Zimmerman.