VanEck now sees $1 million Bitcoin as its base-case outcome, according to Matthew Sigel, the firm’s Head of Digital Assets Research. He said the move could unfold over the next several years, and added that Bitcoin may reach that level within five years if adoption keeps accelerating.
The market is dealing with a much nearer threshold first. After falling from a late-2025 high of $126,000, Bitcoin is trading around $81,000. Better sentiment, rising enthusiasm around the U.S. CLARITY Act, and solid institutional demand were cited as current supports.
Sigel compares Bitcoin’s path to the gaming industry
In a CNBC interview, Sigel said VanEck still views higher Bitcoin prices as the central scenario. He compared Bitcoin’s adoption curve to the video game business, which was once treated as something mainly for children and is now widely accepted across age groups. He even pointed to Elon Musk playing video games as part of that comparison.
Sigel also said, “People don’t quit Bitcoin,” tying that view to stronger interest from younger investors and the fact that central banks are beginning to hold Bitcoin reserves. He described Bitcoin as a long-term “mega trend,” while also warning that volatility will remain part of the ride.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs post stronger inflows
Fund flow data added to the constructive setup. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.44 billion in net inflows during April 2026, the strongest month since the 2025 peak. On May 6, spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $46.33 million in total net inflows, extending the streak to five straight days of positive flows.
Those numbers arrived as Bitcoin regained traction toward the $100,000 area. The move has not been driven by sentiment alone; sustained ETF demand is also reinforcing the case that institutions are still adding exposure.
CryptoQuant points to $93,000 as the next major target
CryptoQuant researchers said Bitcoin’s next key level could be $93,000, citing an important CME gap. BTC recently jumped to nearly $83,000, while the total crypto market capitalization climbed to $2.73 trillion.
Macro conditions also fed into the rally. The report noted a sharp 12% drop in oil prices, along with growing optimism over a possible U.S.-Iran peace deal. VanEck’s million-dollar call and CryptoQuant’s shorter-term target sit on different time frames, but both reflect the same current pattern: capital flows and market attention remain concentrated on Bitcoin.