Bitcoin’s return above $70,000 was driven less by crypto-specific news and more by a rapid cooling in geopolitical risk premium across the oil market, according to crypto market maker Wintermute. As Brent crude pulled back from wartime highs, worries over inflation, supply disruption, and pressure on global growth eased at the same time. That shift sent money back into risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Oil pullback changed the market’s pricing of risk
Wintermute said Donald Trump’s call to pause additional strikes helped reduce the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices, pushing Brent lower and helping Bitcoin move back above $70,000. In its view, recent price action has been shaped more by macro and geopolitical developments than by internal crypto catalysts. For traders, oil was acting as a direct signal for how much risk the market was willing to carry.
Reuters reported that after the US floated a proposal tied to an Iran ceasefire and de-escalation, markets began to price in a lower chance of supply disruption in the Middle East. As of the 25th, Brent May futures were at $96.01 a barrel, roughly flat, while US WTI futures rose 0.4% to $88.49 a barrel. That stood in sharp contrast to March 19, when Reuters said Brent had climbed as high as $119.13 a barrel intraday and WTI had also moved above $100 a barrel, as fears over attacks on Middle East energy facilities pushed supply concerns higher.
Bitcoin moved with the broader rebound in risk assets
Wintermute’s core view is that if markets believe the Middle East conflict is not escalating and energy supply risk is temporarily contained, then the earlier spike in oil prices starts to reverse and sentiment toward equities and crypto improves with it. At the time of writing, Binance data showed Bitcoin at about $70,669, with a 24-hour range from $68,920.69 to $71,371.30. The recovery above $70,000 did not remove volatility. It only changed the direction.
Wintermute also noted that after Trump announced a pause on further strikes against Iran, Bitcoin briefly returned to $70,000 and the total crypto market added about $60 billion in a single day. Equity markets in Asia, Europe, and the US also moved higher, which suggested this was not an isolated crypto move but part of a broader recovery in risk appetite. When crude surges on conflict, markets usually shift toward defensiveness and deleveraging. When crude falls back, the market is repricing the worst-case supply shock.
Options expiry and resistance levels are now in focus
The report said Trump’s five-day pause on action against Iranian energy infrastructure temporarily reduced the geopolitical premium in oil and led traders to reposition ahead of the March 27 options expiry. If Brent holds near $100 and diplomatic efforts continue, inflation concerns linked to energy disruption may ease. That could allow some of the rate-cut expectations erased last week to return, removing part of the macro pressure that has weighed on Bitcoin since the conflict intensified.
Wintermute added that positive developments around tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, or signs of cooperation from Iran, could push Bitcoin toward the $74,000 to $76,000 resistance zone, an area that had already rejected price twice. With Bitcoin back above $70,000 and the options max pain level clustered near that mark, supportive headlines could affect price action into expiry. If talks break down or shipping restrictions remain in place, the oil risk premium could rise again. In that case, Bitcoin may revisit support in the mid-$60,000 area.
Markets are still cautious. Iran continues to deny direct talks with the US, leaving the outlook for a ceasefire or sustained de-escalation uncertain. If tensions flare up again and supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz return, oil could jump once more and reverse the improvement seen across risk assets.