Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reports that XRP's on-chain cost basis distribution is strikingly similar to the structure seen in early 2022 — a period that preceded months of weakness as the token slid from roughly $0.78 to $0.30 by mid-year.
The current setup is defined by a clear divergence: investors who bought XRP over the past one week to one month hold coins with a lower average cost basis than those who purchased six to twelve months ago. That puts newer buyers in profit while older holders remain underwater. If the price fails to break higher, this gap tends to build selling pressure over time as long-term holders look to exit near breakeven.
The $2 Threshold: A Psychological and Behavioral Anchor
XRP has been struggling to sustain levels above $2. According to Glassnode, each retest of the $2 zone since mid-2025 has coincided with $500 million to $1.2 billion in realized losses per week — a signal that many market participants use the area to reduce exposure rather than add positions.
That track record has turned $2 into a key psychological barrier. When prices dip below it, holders with higher entry costs wait for a chance to break even, while short-term buyers accumulate at lower levels. The pattern doesn't guarantee a repeat of 2022's drawdown, but the longer the cost-basis split persists, the more strain it puts on investors who bought near recent highs.
Short-Term Demand vs. Long-Term Supply
On one side, fresh capital flowing in below $2 creates demand support. On the other, older holders (6-12 month cohort) still sitting on losses are likely to sell into any rally that lets them exit at breakeven. This tug-of-war keeps XRP pinned near the $2 level and exposes short-term buyers to the risk that a wave of overhead supply caps further upside.
Notably, a similar on-chain structure in February 2022 did not trigger an immediate crash — XRP traded sideways near $0.78 for several weeks before breaking down. If $2 fails to hold, the next technical support lies at 2025 lows.
On-chain data does not predict direction, but cost basis misalignment is one of the most objective pressure indicators in the market. Short-term buyers enjoy unrealized profits, but they also bear the risk that older holders will take profits or cut losses as soon as the price tests that zone. Whether XRP avoids a repeat of 2022 depends on whether the $2 level becomes genuine demand support rather than a mere distribution point.