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Arthur Hayes
2026-08-25 06:33:15

Arthur Hayes says a 5% US 10-year yield is the trigger for more dollar liquidity and a bullish Bitcoin setup

Arthur Hayes argues that the signal for Bitcoin is not a political slogan from Washington but the level of the US 10-year Treasury yield. In his latest piece, Hayes says both former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and current Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent end up choosing liquidity-creating measures when the 10-year yield nears 5%, even if their public messaging differs. He revisits late 2023, when Yellen increased Treasury bill issuance and helped pull money out of the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo facility, and contrasts that with Bessent’s current toolkit, including a larger long-end buyback program and support for broader use of the FIMA facility. Hayes argues that these steps are all aimed at keeping long-term borrowing costs from rising too far. His broader claim is straightforward: when the Treasury and the Fed lean toward yield suppression, dollar liquidity expands, and that tends to lift risk assets, including Bitcoin. Hayes points to the drop in reverse repo balances from about $2.5 trillion to $100 billion by the time Bessent took office on Jan. 20, 2025, and says that liquidity shift helped support both the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin. He adds that if Bessent escalates support as market stress builds, Bitcoin could respond in the same direction again.

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Arthur Hayes says a 5% US 10-year yield is the trigger for more dollar liquidity and a bullish Bitcoin setup
Morgan Stanle
2026-07-14 11:00:00

Morgan Stanley says AI networking could reach $70 billion by 2030, with copper set to benefit before CPO

Morgan Stanley has raised its estimate for the AI scale-up networking opportunity in 2030 to about $70 billion, more than four times last year’s forecast. The bank’s latest note does not argue that co-packaged optics, or CPO, is about to break out. Its point is almost the opposite: as AI clusters move from single-rack systems to multi-rack deployments, the overall back-end networking market grows sharply, but short-distance links still favor copper for now on cost, latency, and power. In Morgan Stanley’s timeline, CPO penetration in scale-up networks stays near zero in 2026 and 2027, starts to appear in 2028, and only reaches a meaningful 20% to 30% by 2029 to 2030. That sequencing shapes the list of likely winners. Companies helping copper run faster and farther, including Astera Labs, Broadcom and Semtech, are positioned to benefit earlier. Keysight Technologies stands out because broader architectural fragmentation across NVLink, UALink, SUE, PCIe and cloud-specific interconnects drives more testing demand regardless of which link technology wins. By contrast, Corning, Lumentum and Coherent offer more upside if large GPU domains arrive on schedule and optical content expands materially. Morgan Stanley’s view is that the market is getting bigger, but the path to large-scale optical adoption still depends on platform timing, manufacturing maturity and customer willingness to absorb complexity in packaging, maintenance and supply chains.

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Morgan Stanley says AI networking could reach $70 billion by 2030, with copper set to benefit before CPO