Goldman raises optical module shipment outlook as Hubei firms trail Zhongji Innolight in scale and overseas reach

Goldman Sachs raised its 2026-2028 shipment forecasts for global optical modules on Sept. 7, lifting estimates for 800G-and-above products by 31%, 39% and 36%, and for 1.6T-and-above products by 29%, 61% and 50%. At the 27th China International Optoelectronic Exposition in Shenzhen, Hubei-based companies showcased products moving beyond 800G toward 1.6T, 3.2T, 6.4T and even 12.8T, showing that local technology development is keeping pace with the next wave of higher-speed products. Yet the gap with Zhongji Innolight remains wide in revenue, profit, capacity and access to North American cloud customers. The report cited revenue growth at Accelink, HGTECH, Linktel Technologies and Huilv Ecology, but said Zhongji Innolight’s first-half optical module revenue reached 41.355 billion yuan, nearly three times the combined optical module revenue of those four Hubei companies. Its profit also exceeded 13 billion yuan, above the four firms’ combined earnings. Interviewees told Zhidian Finance that Hubei’s weakness is less about core technology and more about late capacity positioning, slower entry into the first wave of high-speed module demand, limited penetration of North American AI customers, and less flexible market-oriented mechanisms. Several experts said the next step for Hubei companies is to concentrate resources on certification, factory audits, overseas capacity and top-tier North American cloud accounts.