CME FedWatch data on Aug 30 showed the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September at 57%, with odds of holding rates steady at 43%. The shift follows a more hawkish-than-expected speech by Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole on Friday evening. Warsh signaled the Fed could raise rates again if inflation does not return to 2% at a clear and sufficiently fast pace. Before the September FOMC meeting, one nonfarm payrolls report and one CPI inflation report are still due, along with some secondary data releases. With recent U.S. jobs reports missing expectations by wide margins, any further weakening signal could significantly undermine market expectations for a September hike.

According to BlockBeats, StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada said on August 29 that Fed Chair Warsh's Friday evening Jackson Hole speech was viewed as quite hawkish. Warsh, when it came to forward guidance, said what the market expected: he does not believe in forward guidance, and therefore declined to pre-commit to a September rate hike. Yet that did not stop market participants from speculating that a rate increase could genuinely return to the table. On inflation, Warsh said reining in price pressures remains a clear priority and elaborated on the point at length, while adding that he is confident core inflation is moving toward the Fed's target. Overall, his remarks came across as more hawkish than the market had priced in. During the speech, September Fed pricing was significantly repriced, with the probability of a 25-basis-point hike jumping from 30% to around 50%. Before the September FOMC meeting, one nonfarm payrolls report and one CPI report are still due, along with some secondary data. Under the new chair, Razaqzada noted, the Fed has become more data-dependent. Given that recent U.S. employment reports have missed expectations by sizable margins, any further softness could severely undermine confidence in a September hike.

In a note published on Aug. 29, CICC offered its take on Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, calling the tone hawkish. Warsh acknowledged that inflation remains elevated, said interest rates are still the primary policy tool, and pledged to act "as circumstances warrant." He pointed to economic resilience, stable employment, and easing financial conditions as evidence that policy risks now tilt to the inflation side. He also placed responsibility for the 65-month inflation overshoot on the central bank itself and walked back his July suggestion of letting the market do the Fed's rate-hiking work. CICC believes the speech will help rebuild the Fed's credibility, and markets have already started to price a marginal recovery in policy trust. Over the longer run, Warsh continues to argue that AI could reshape the economy and the policy framework, while pushing for fewer forward-guidance commitments and other reforms. For markets, the hawkish signal raises the odds of a rate hike this year, but CICC cautions that this is not necessarily pure bad news. Liquidity is not the issue today; what markets need is policy discipline and predictability. If inflation is subdued in time, the medium-term outcome could actually be favorable, the brokerage said.

StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada said Wosh's speech on Friday evening was viewed as fairly hawkish. In remarks on forward guidance, Wosh said what markets expected him to say — he does not believe in forward guidance and therefore refused to pre-commit to a September rate hike. That did not stop speculation that a hike could return to the table. On inflation, Wosh said fighting it remains a clear priority, a point he elaborated at length, while adding that he is confident core inflation is moving toward the Fed's target. Overall, his speech was more hawkish than markets expected. During Wosh's Jackson Hole remarks, the market substantially repriced expectations for the Fed's September decision, with the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike jumping from 30% to about 50%. Before the September meeting, one nonfarm payrolls report and one CPI inflation report are still due, along with some secondary data releases. Under the new chair, the Fed has become more data-dependent. Given that recent US employment reports have missed expectations by wide margins, any further weakening signal could seriously undermine market expectations for a September rate hike.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh made his first Jackson Hole appearance as chair and delivered a message that markets read as more hawkish than his July FOMC press conference. He said inflation remains “concerning,” argued that the Fed’s “primary focus should be on prices,” and warned that “we have more work to do” if underlying inflation does not return to target at a “sufficient pace.” The speech triggered an immediate market reaction: the 2-year Treasury yield rose by about 7 basis points, and implied odds of a September rate hike climbed from roughly 30% before the remarks to above 50% afterward. Even so, Wall Street’s major banks did not fully embrace that repricing. JPMorgan kept December as its base case for the next hike, with economist Michael Feroli saying the more important inputs for the September meeting will be the upcoming August nonfarm payrolls report and CPI data. Goldman Sachs also held its line, expecting August core CPI and core PCE to rise about 0.2% month over month, a path that would leave the FOMC on hold unless CPI and PPI come in stronger than expected. Warsh also used the speech to reaffirm the Fed’s fixed 2% inflation goal, clarify that short-term rates remain its primary tool, and describe current financial conditions as difficult to label restrictive.

Economist Peter Schiff has said former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh's hawkish comments created wrong expectations for a September rate hike. Warsh is known for his hawkish monetary policy stance. Schiff, a prominent economist and precious metals advocate, has long been critical of Fed policy and crypto assets. Markets are closely watching how rate decisions affect risk assets.

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole knocked bitcoin back on Friday. The token slid to $77,557, down 3.39% on the day, after hitting an intraday low of $76,877 and retreating from an overnight high of $81,455. CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a September rate hike jumped to 55.7% from 35.4%. Crypto liquidations reached $481 million in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for more than $360 million. Prediction markets still assign a 77% chance of bitcoin reaching $84,000 and a 23% chance of falling to $55,000; Friday's pullback did not change those odds. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded an eighth consecutive day of net inflows as of Wednesday, adding roughly $2.8 billion, the longest streak since April. Bitcoin's RSI stands near 69.7, below the extreme overbought levels that preceded earlier pullbacks. Key support sits at $73,670-$75,157; a move back above $81,000-$82,500 would reopen the path to fresh highs.

Bitcoin pulled back after Federal Reserve Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish message at the Jackson Hole symposium, sending the market lower after an earlier rally. The cryptocurrency fell as low as $76,877 on Friday after reaching an overnight high of $81,455, before closing at $77,557, down 3.39% on the day. The retreat came after Bitcoin had posted a double-digit gain earlier in the week, only to run into resistance in the $81,000-$82,500 range again. Rate expectations shifted quickly after Warsh said inflation in the United States was not falling fast enough and that the Fed still had work to do before reaching its 2% target. CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a September rate hike rising from 35.4% a day earlier to 55.7%. The move also hit leveraged crypto positions, with about $481 million liquidated across the market in the past 24 hours, including more than $360 million in long positions. Even so, longer-term bullish sentiment has not materially changed. Prediction market data still assigns a 77% chance that Bitcoin’s next major target will be $84,000, versus a 23% chance of falling to $55,000. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. had also recorded eight straight trading days of net inflows through Wednesday, drawing about $2.8 billion in total.