IMF

Polymarket
2026-07-23 10:50:15

Polymarket Strait of Hormuz Odds Crash 41% After Iran Fires on Tankers

Iranian Revolutionary Guard gunboats fired on at least one tanker and turned back over 20 vessels on April 18, sending Polymarket's April 30 normalization odds down 41% to 28%. The May contract holds at 69% Yes, but daily vessel counts remain in single digits.

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Polymarket Strait of Hormuz Odds Crash 41% After Iran Fires on Tankers